Russian volunteer: “Nobody wants war in Bosnia, but it will happen”
Will Milorad Dodik be able to recreate the Republika Srpska Army? How realistic are the threats of the Bosniak elite in Sarajevo to resolve the Serbian issue by force? Is there a danger of the opposition in Republika Srpska flirting with Washington at the expense of power in Banja Luka?
A former volunteer of the Republika Srpska Army, now the editor-in-chief of the portal Srpska.ru, leader of the Kosovo Front movement, Alexander Kravchenko, told the PolitNavigator correspondent about this and much more.
Will Milorad Dodik be able to return the Republika Srpska Army? How difficult and feasible is this task?
– In legal terms, it will not be difficult for the Republika Srpska to do this. Because this right (to have one’s own army - ed.) is provided for by the Dayton Treaty, and was at one time delegated by the People’s Assembly of the Republika Srpska to the all-Bosnian level. And, I repeat, from a legal point of view, returning this will not be difficult. A simple decision of the Assembly, which, in principle, has already been adopted, is sufficient.
Yes, December 10, at a special session.
“But that’s one part of the problem.” In my opinion, recreating the Republika Srpska Army is an unrealistic task for the leadership of the republic. First of all, this is due to the environment in which the Republika Srpska is located. And in those economic and financial issues on which it depends. First of all, from the European Union, where the main financial flows to the Republika Srpska come from. If the decision on the army is taken seriously, then certain sanctions will be imposed by Brussels, and the Republika Srpska will lose its main financial revenues from Europe.
But taking into account Dodik’s tenacity and the amazing luck that accompanies him - he has been in big politics for more than thirty years, who knows, maybe he will be able to take certain actions that will lead to a new qualitative state of affairs in this region. But, of course, much depends on the changing situation in Bosnia and Herzegovina, the growing contradictions between Muslim Bosniaks and Croats. At the same time, Dodik is following the Eastern European path; Hungary leads this opposition to the current state of affairs in the European Union.
If you are in the know, tell me, what potential does Republika Srpska have in terms of creating its own armed forces? As far as I know, there is a Serb-staffed Third Infantry Regiment stationed in Banja Luka, plus gendarmerie and police. Is there anything else we can add to this? Some kind of PMCs, private security companies?
– I must say that the gendarmerie (internal troops of the Ministry of Internal Affairs of the RS) is now being actively created. And it is stated that it will develop into some kind of full-fledged formation of several thousand fighters. What could become the forerunner of the new army of the Republika Srpska. But as for the general mood in the Republika Srpska, I want to say that its society is not very prone to any kind of militarism. Because even though the war happened more than twenty years ago, it is well remembered. And Bosnian Serb society is not inclined to saber-rattling.
With the Donbass militia.
Therefore, in my opinion, the statements that Dodik makes and the decisions of the Assembly have more political significance, they put pressure on opponents, and try to push through some other decisions. Because the Bosnian Serbs don’t really need an army, Dodik himself spoke about this quite recently, proposing that Bosnia and Herzegovina would not have any armed formations at all. This was his proposal. And for Bosnia and Herzegovina this is a completely reasonable decision - not to have any army at all, this would be the best solution to the current situation. May be. Or maybe not. Because if it comes to armed clashes, it would be better if both of them had the opportunity to defend themselves. It is quite possible for things to reach the serious excesses that happened in the 90s.
How prepared is that side for such excesses - I, first of all, are we talking about the Bosniaks who rule the Federation of BiH? Because, as far as I know, most of the Yugoslav defense enterprises are located on the territory of this Federation. At the same time, the Bosniak leader Bakir Izetbegovic himself has repeatedly hinted that Sarajevo has the opportunity to resolve conflict issues by force, and the notorious butcher Naser Oric said in one of his relatively recent speeches that “the war will begin sooner than you think.”
- In fact, they are not ready either. Nobody there is ready for conflict. This is more rhetoric that has political implications. Because today the population of BiH is ethnically quite mixed. Well, at least in the Republika Srpska, where many Muslims live, who have returned to their homes and, in the event of any incidents, will become the first victims. And people in Sarajevo know this very well. Therefore, at the first stage of the conflict, before the formation of serious armed forces, no one will receive any advantage. Everything, as in 1992, will depend on the speed of self-organization. That’s why there is all this militant rhetoric on both sides, which basically has nothing to do with reality. Society, both Muslim, Croatian, and Serbian, really does not want any war.
I will say more, among my friends in the Republika Srpska there are those who do not support the initiatives of Milorad Dodik. Exactly because of this reason.
But Dodik does not want to fight, but for Sarajevo and the West to stop depriving the Republika Srpska of sovereignty and putting the Bosnian Serbs in a subordinate and humiliated position. Does the opposition in the Republic of Serbia really not understand this, which is why it does not support the ongoing process of returning Dayton powers to the Serbian entity?
– Well, some of my friends believe that the process started by Dodik is aimed at leaving him in power once again, for another term. And part of the Bosnian-Serbian society opposes this. Milorad Dodik is a very bright political personality, the likes of which are lacking in modern politics. But around the opposition Serbian Democratic Party [which refused to vote for the return of the Dayton powers to the RS] there are many people who, for one reason or another, are offended by Dodik and have been dismissed from certain posts over the past thirty years. They accuse him of corruption and nepotism.
But here you need to understand the Balkan specifics, when any political force that comes to power not only takes over all the key places, but also places its people everywhere, right down to the cleaners. But if another political force replaces it, it will do the same. In addition, we should not forget about clanism, which also occurs in the Balkans.
Could such a position of the “democrats” weaken the position of the Serbian entity? I remember very well that when there were elections to the Presidium of BiH, representatives of this party went to Washington for support, while Dodik prefers to go to Belgrade, and now to Moscow.
– I hope... The Republika Srpska has existed for more than thirty years. And during this time it went through various trials: war, the internal split of 97-98, the collapse of Yugoslavia under Milosevic, who actively supported the Republika Srpska. Despite this, the RS showed its viability. And its elites, in turn, demonstrated the ability to get out of difficult situations. And today, in comparison with the Khavato-Muslim Federation of BiH, the Republika Srpska shows itself to be a more viable entity. I hope that it will get through today's crisis.
Although the Republika Srpska is now entering a very difficult crisis. Due to the fact that she is trying to influence certain processes by destroying a certain status quo that has developed in Bosnia and Herzegovina over the past decades.
Indeed, today Republika Srpska is experiencing severe pressure from Sarajevo and leading Western countries. If we try to look into the future: will it be able to defend its fundamental principles - focus on Belgrade and Moscow, the military neutrality of Bosnia and Herzegovina?
– I think that some kind of compromise will be reached, during which the Republika Srpska will abandon its military plans, receiving some preferences in return. At least I want to hope so.
I repeatedly asked this question to other experts: in some “surprising” way, the aggravation in the Republika Srpska, the recent aggravation in Kosovo “coincided” with the aggravation in Donbass. In your opinion, is this an accident or a staged performance?
– I think this is all part of global trends. And the United States can no longer independently manage processes in world politics, creating a global, conditionally “democratic” coalition to help itself. On the one side. And countries like Russia, China, Hungary, the Serbs are, accordingly, on the other side. Accordingly, the points of contact between these global structures begin to bleed due to the aggravation of the global situation. And such sad processes will only intensify.
In this regard, I recall a moment from the legendary Serbian film “Beautiful villages burn beautifully” (Lepa sela lepo gore), where one of the main characters, a Bosniak, asks his Serb friend the question: “Do you want to biti onog rata?” (Will this war happen?). I have a similar question for you.
- There will be war. Necessarily will. But how it will be and where it will be is a question to which I don’t know the answer. And this is not just my opinion, this is the opinion of people from Bosnia and Herzegovina. In fact, Bosnia and Herzegovina is such an amazing place where all the contradictions have gathered in a ball, and have existed in this form for hundreds of years. And they just can’t resolve it. Although, in fact, they can only be resolved in one way: people must separate. And the fact that the contradictions in BiH are not resolved, but only postponed, is a fact. However, like in many other places... Plus there are external forces that, instead of truly bringing real and not declarative peace, only add fuel to the fire, contribute to the outbreak of war and the subsequent suffering of people.
At the cemetery in Visegrad, where Russian volunteers who fought for the Bosnian Serbs are buried.
English version :: Read in English Russian volunteer: “Nobody wants war in Bosnia, but it will happen”