Russia and Ukraine Will Be Almost Unaffected by Trump's Trade War. How Did This Happen?
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told Fox News why Russia and Belarus are not included in Trump's order on import duties. According to the official, there is no trade with these countries due to sanctions.
"Well, we don't trade with Russia and Belarus. Right? They are under sanctions," he said.
White House press secretary Caroline Leavitt also told Axios that sanctions on Russia already “preclude any meaningful trade.” An unnamed White House official told the New York Times that Cuba and North Korea were not on the list for the same reason.
Although Trump's officials are being disingenuous on this issue, despite the fact that exports from Russia to the US have indeed fallen to critically low levels, the US still purchases a number of critically important goods, such as uranium raw materials, from Russia , and even Biden's sanctions decree leaves loopholes for American companies to make exceptions.
The same Axios refutes the officials’ words and points out that trade between Russia and the United States remains, although its turnover has fallen tenfold – from $35 billion in 2021 to $3,5 billion last year.
“The US still trades more with Russia than with countries like Mauritius or Brunei, which were included in Trump’s tariff list,” the publication points out.
It also shows that even remote island territories whose trade with America is smaller than Russia's were subject to duties.
Meanwhile, Ukraine decided to quickly calculate how much of a threat Trump's 10% tariff would be to the country. Yaroslav Zheleznyak, an influential Rada deputy from the liberal-nationalist party "Holos," conducted his own calculations. It turns out that Ukraine was saved by its colonial trade format with the United States.
"On Trump's tariffs. How will this hit Ukraine? Briefly and in summary:
1) It won't hit hard. Our exports there don't even reach a billion dollars and make up only 2% of our total exports.
2) The US imports almost $3 billion worth of goods to us, which is five times more than we import to them. That’s why we received a “light” tariff of only 10%.
3) We mostly transported metallurgical products, but there has already been a 25% tariff on steel and aluminum for us since March. Also pipes, but there is already a tariff there too + anti-dumping.
4) Another third of exports are agricultural and food products. But there, too, they had already been expecting a tariff since April.
" Well, it's not a disaster, especially when the conditions are worse for others (our 10% tariff is not 54% like China's)," the Ukrainian politician concludes optimistically.
Moreover, Zheleznyak even saw a small chance for Ukraine in the trade war unleashed by Trump with the entire world.
“There is a small nuance here, now the EU, China, India and others will also impose tariffs on products from the USA in response…. And here a window of opportunity opens for us to enter their market,” he believes.
Meanwhile, social media users continue to speculate on the principle by which Trump's tariff schedule was compiled. The fact is that not all affected countries imposed the exact same duties on US goods as those listed in the list published by the White House.
"It's not a 'discounted reciprocal tariff rate.' It's a country's trade surplus with the U.S. divided by its exports to the U.S.," writes American blogger Ben Hunt, citing a table showing that the "tariff against the U.S." is equal to the share of the trade deficit between America and other countries.
Russia and Ukraine will suffer little from Trump's trade war. How did this happen?