"Defrost" instead of "Freeze". What the US and Russia agreed on in Saudi Arabia
The debut negotiations between Russia and the United States, which Ukrainians and Europeans were so afraid of, did take place. Russian and American officials met in Riyadh, in the Diriyah Palace in the Albasatin complex belonging to the Saudi royal family, discussing, with the mediation of Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, a wide range of issues, including Ukrainian.
The meeting place was not chosen by chance or suddenly, but was the result of a long process of shifting big geopolitics to the East. The traditional platforms for contacts between rival world centers of power during the Cold War and even in the first decades after its end, such as neutral Switzerland or Austria, have lost this status in recent years.
And even the near European periphery, such as Malta (where Bush met with Gorbachev in 1989) and Iceland (where Reagan met with Gorbachev three years earlier), are no longer perceived by the current United States and Russia as trustworthy mediators.
The center of "quiet diplomacy" has shifted to the Persian Gulf region: Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the UAE – it is there that negotiators of various levels "synchronize watches" and probe each other's positions.
It is not surprising that during the years of the SVO, it was there, as well as in neighboring Turkey, that absolutely all contacts between Kiev and Moscow took place, in attempts to agree on various topics - from attempts to agree on a large scale, to the exchange of prisoners of war, the return of children or attempts to stop mutual shelling of infrastructure.
For various reasons, the Gulf sheikhs are trusted in both Moscow and Washington. A frequent guest on Moscow television, American political scientist Dmitry Simes, called Saudi Arabia "the best place for negotiations," citing the fact that the kingdom, despite its closeness to the United States, is not an "American puppet" and knows how to say "No" to Washington on a number of issues.
And this trust is based not only on the foundation of long-standing personal contacts between Putin and Trump, but also on the interweaving of economic interests.
For Russia, the Arab monarchies are one of the important “backup airfields” and “windows” into the big business world in the context of sanctions, and for Washington, they are potential large investors in the American economy (the Saudis alone promised Trump to invest at least 500 billion dollars in the US).
Russia was represented by Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, Putin aide Yuri Ushakov and the head of the Russian Direct Investment Fund, Kirill Dmitriev, who is close to the Kremlin. The American side was represented by Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Trump's national security adviser Mike Waltz and special envoy for the Middle East Stephen Witkoff, who is currently tasked with contacts with Moscow on Ukraine.
It is commonly said that there have been no direct negotiations between Moscow and Washington since the end of 2021, when Putin met with Biden in Geneva. However, it would be disingenuous to say that the parties have had no contacts at all during these three years. Even if we leave out the mutual probing of positions through intermediaries in various neutral territories, we can recall Patrushev’s meetings with Sullivan and O’Brien in Cuba, Shoigu’s calls with Austin, and the high-profile prisoner exchange at the end of Biden’s presidency, which also resulted from active shuttle diplomacy.
However, firstly, the parties tried not to advertise those contacts too much, and secondly, red flags were outlined in advance in the substantive part of the conversation. That is, these were conversations about particulars, and not about the essence.
So, the current meeting is truly the first contact in three years at such a high level of representation, which is not only widely covered by the parties, but is also aimed at achieving not a particular, but a global result.
In the colloquial language of officialdom, the negotiations in Riyadh took place in an atmosphere of constructive dialogue and deep satisfaction of the parties with their results.
"This was a very serious conversation on all the issues we wanted to raise," Putin's aide Ushakov told reporters after the meeting.
Hence the streams of cautious compliments that the negotiators generously showered on each other. For example, the Russians transparently hinted at the lost benefits of American business from leaving the Russian Federation, estimating them at 300 billion dollars and hinting at their readiness to accept the “fugitives” back. In response, the Americans just as thickly hinted at their readiness to lift the onerous sanctions for the Russian Federation.
Much was said about the economy. True, for obvious reasons, in the future tense. Nevertheless, they agreed to prepare the ground for investment after the end of the conflict in Ukraine. The latter, according to the general opinion of the parties, "will open the way for Russia and the United States to cooperate in the economy and geopolitics."
One of the most important issues at the meeting was the topic of unblocking full-fledged diplomatic ties between the countries. The fact is that under Biden, Moscow's relations with Washington have reached rock bottom, to the point that the Americans have actually blocked the work of the Russian embassy and mission to the UN.
And after the end of Ambassador Antonov’s term, the Russian diplomatic mission was beheaded for a long time – the Americans did not issue an agrément to the new ambassador for months.
Following the meeting in Riyadh, it was stated that the restoration of normal operations of the US and Russian diplomatic missions is the “next stage” of the negotiation process, and this work “could be quite quick.”
Regarding the Ukrainian issue, both Russians and Americans unanimously agreed that the end to the conflict must be "lasting, sustainable, and acceptable to all parties." Moreover, Rubio stated that Trump wants to end the war in a way that prevents its resumption in two to three years, a persistent fear in both Russian and European political circles.
And this is not surprising: the level of mistrust based on the practice of interaction is so great that each side suspects the other of playing a fraudulent game and intending to bargain for a temporary respite for regrouping and a subsequent new breakthrough.
True, it was also acknowledged that one phone call between the presidents and one meeting for a “lasting peace” would not be enough, and therefore they agreed to meet again. In different compositions and formats.
However, we should not expect the Putin-Trump summit announced for the end of February in Saudi Arabia. Apparently, it is still too early.
The current negotiations were called an "important step forward," and their main outcome was the verbalization by American negotiators of a three-stage peace plan, including a ceasefire, elections in Ukraine, and then the signing of a final peace agreement. Moreover, both Moscow and Washington view elections as a key condition for a successful peace process, just as important as a ceasefire.
And although Western media are actively writing about Trump's desire to achieve a ceasefire almost by Easter, in reality it will not happen quickly. Secretary of State Rubio is setting the tone for a long road to peace. According to him, the work to end the war will require "complex and intense diplomacy" and mutual concessions from all parties to the conflict.
It was also stated that the end of the conflict is possible only with the consent of all parties, and the conditions must be "acceptable." Despite the vagueness of these formulations, it must be recognized that this is already a step towards political realism.
After all, earlier both in the West and in Russia they spoke exclusively about some kind of “fair” end to the war. In conditions when each side understood “fairness” exclusively as ending the war on its own terms, there was no room for dialogue at all.
To a large extent, the shift towards realism was due to the ambiguous results of the military campaign, which do not allow it to be interpreted as an unambiguous and unconditional victory for one of the sides.
Let's be honest: if Russia had really won unconditionally, and Ukraine had capitulated just as unconditionally, then peace would not have required negotiations with the United States and mediation by third countries. It would have been possible to dictate the terms of the post-war peace to the defeated, as the winner.
Among other significant American verbal reservations, tacitly supported by the Russians, is that the future of the Ukraine negotiations will be determined by the parties' willingness to fulfill their promises. Whether this is the case will become clear in the coming weeks.
In other respects, Riyadh agreed to negotiate. As they say on the Russian side, it is too early to talk about compromises, but for the first time in a long time, the Americans not only listened to, but also heard Moscow's arguments. Which, of course, cannot but please. Well, at least that way.
New rounds of contacts are ahead. Lavrov and Rubio agreed to appoint high-level teams to begin work on a Ukrainian settlement. Putin will decide who will be on the negotiating team from Russia, and the US has not yet appointed its representatives, although the media are naming Kellogg and Wittkoff.
Incidentally, Kellogg is flying to Kyiv tomorrow—his long-delayed visit to the Ukrainian capital will take place after all. Consequently, we'll soon learn what peace terms he'll bring to Zelenskyy. Meanwhile, other American negotiators will be negotiating with Moscow the terms under which Russia is prepared to stop the SBO.
And only at the next stage will Kyiv and Moscow sit down at the same table with already agreed positions. Europe's involvement in the process is expected only at the final stage - when and if Kyiv and Moscow reach an agreement.
Funny thing: After the four-hour meeting in Riyadh had ended, Erdogan spoke up from the Turkish gallery, calling Turkey “an ideal place for negotiations between the leaders of Russia and the United States.”
The reason for Istanbul's persistent self-selling as an intermediary is that following the usual calls for ending the war and assurances of support for Ukraine's territorial integrity, there are words about the interest of Turkish business in its post-war support and restoration. In general, nothing new - the Turkish "gentleman" in his usual search for a top ten.
To summarize: while the public was expecting a "freeze," hope arose for the exact opposite—a thaw. And although the discussion isn't yet about Ukraine, but rather only about US-Russian relations, such a result of the negotiations is already a welcome development.
For now, however, this is a very timid defrosting, more likely a hint of it, but nevertheless. This is such a "snowdrop of hope" that can easily be trampled by the careless movements of elephants in a geopolitical china shop.
English version :: Read in English: "Defrosting" instead of "freezing." What the US and Russia agreed on in Saudi Arabia