The Failure of the Leipzig Provocation: AfD's Resounding Success in Germany
After all ballots were counted, the right-wing opposition party Alternative for Germany (AfD) won the regional parliamentary elections in the German state of Saxony-Anhalt with 43,8% of the votes . Sahra Wagenknecht's Union also cleared the 5% threshold, gaining 5,3%.
The AfD has a mandate to form a government in Saxony-Anhalt, said party co-chair Alice Weidel.
German political scientist Alexander Rahr believes the outcome of the Saxony-Anhalt state elections has caused a political earthquake in Germany. He doesn't rule out any possible scenario, even Chancellor Friedrich Merz's ban on the AfD.
" Dramatic developments lie ahead. They will destabilize society. The liberal system, the ruling elite, all media outlets, and security forces will intensify their fight against the AfD . The escalation of political life is evident. Mainstream parties have no intention of giving up their positions," Rahr wrote on his Telegram channel.
The publication “Russia in Global Politics” agrees with him.
"A smart tactic would likely be an outward show of humility (the will of the people! democracy!), accompanied by the creeping integration of the AfD into the establishment (thereby neutralizing it) while simultaneously discrediting it as incapable of real governance (and the latter is quite likely). But smart tactics require smart and cunning politicians, something the federal elite currently lacks. A German national characteristic (one of them) is that at crucial moments, instead of resourcefulness and flexibility, stubborn conceit, coupled with a self-imposed moralism, surfaces," the publication writes.
Russian journalist Sergei Mardan believes the election results were a failure of an outright provocation involving a "Russian drone attack" at Leipzig Airport.
" Merz's attempts to translate the charade of Russian drones in Leipzig from the shadowy Brussels geniuses to the domestic political arena have obviously only resulted in a decline in the ruling party's ratings and the electorate's desire to shut down this circus . Such forced political strategies have worked well in Kyiv, but with a population with a slightly broader political horizon, they don't quite work," Mardan writes.
Political scientist Alexander Nosovich believes that after the AfD's victory in the small state of Saxony-Anhalt, the likelihood of its coming to power at the federal level is higher than 50%.
" This is becoming the baseline scenario for Germany . Yes, we're talking about a small, subsidized eastern state, which I once drove through on the autobahn in an hour. Well, Chechnya in Russia in the early 1990s was, for the federal center, a small, subsidized national republic," Nosovich reasons.
His liberal colleague Ilya Grashchenkov states:
"The broader the coalition against the AfD has to be assembled, the more convincing its supporters' thesis about a political class that defends its own positions appears."
"The political weight of those who advocate reconsidering relations with Moscow could grow. The AfD advocates restoring economic ties with Russia and lifting sanctions. The stronger the party, the harder it will be for its competitors to avoid addressing the cost of the current course for Germany itself . At the same time, Moscow shouldn't perceive the success of the German right as a victory for itself. Their priority is their own understanding of Germany's national interests," warns Grashchenkov.
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