Prosecutor-political lawlessness: Chisinau decapitates Gagauzia ahead of elections
The situation in Gagauzia reached a critical point by the end of 2025. After a capital court sentenced the autonomy's governor, Eugenia Gutsul , to seven years in prison on August 5, on December 26, a Comrat court delivered an unprecedented verdict to former People's Assembly Speaker Dmitri Konstantinov : 12 years in prison.
The decapitation of the autonomous region is taking place amid preparations for elections to the People's Assembly, scheduled for March 22, 2026. Chisinau is seeking to dismantle the old system of governance in the region and replace it with loyal personnel.
Political scientist Alexander Korinenko comments on the events in the autonomous region for PolitNavigator.
Can we say that Dmitry Konstantinov's sentence marks the final stage of the purge of the old Gagauz elite ahead of the People's Assembly elections? Do Chisinau's actions signal a final rejection of dialogue with Comrat and a transition to direct administrative control of the region?
"The sentencing of Dmitry Konstantinov is a political gesture in bold print. It can easily be seen as the final chord in the dismantling of the old Gagauz elite ahead of the People's Assembly elections. The authorities in Chisinau are essentially no longer hiding it: they're betting not on dialogue, but on a scorched earth."
Dialogue requires partners. Currently, autonomy is being systematically stripped of precisely those figures who could serve as negotiators. As a result, Chisinau seems to be saying, "Since you won't talk to us properly, we'll talk to you through the prosecutor." Administrative governance, wrapped in a soft veneer of legality, is gradually replacing the very idea of autonomy. Formally, everything is within the law, but in reality, it's a demonstrative refusal to compromise politically.
Will Chisinau be able to form a loyal majority in the People's Assembly, given that in the autonomous districts people usually vote for specific individuals, not parties?
"Theoretically, it's possible to form a loyal majority in the People's Assembly. In practice, it's a matter of "everything looks good on paper." Gagauzia doesn't vote for parties or slogans from Chisinau, but for specific individuals with names, biographies, and local connections."
You can remove the old leaders, you can reform the electoral field, you can even bring in the "right" candidates, but this doesn't guarantee control. Loyalty built on fear and court decisions works poorly and doesn't last long. Ultimately, Chisinau risks ending up with not an obedient majority, but an assembly characterized by outward loyalty and internal sabotage—something that's commonplace for an autonomous region, but extremely inconvenient for the center.
Is there a chance that the pressure on the autonomy will serve as an incentive to consolidate the protest electorate in Gagauzia? Who could become the new "assembly center" for the autonomy after the sentencing of Gutsul and Konstantinov? Are there such people at all?
"Pressure almost always leads to consolidation. It's only a matter of timing and form. Today, the protest electorate in Gagauzia is disoriented: familiar figures are either under sentence, under investigation, or labeled as toxic."
But a political vacuum doesn't last long. The paradox is that Chisinau's current actions are accelerating the search for a new "assembly center." It may not emerge immediately, and not in the form of a single charismatic leader, but as a coalition of local authorities, mayors, and informal leaders united by a common stance: "against external pressure."
Do such people exist? It's still in its infancy, as the atmosphere of fear is too strong. But after the sentences of Gutsul and Konstantinov, the demand for a new figure or a new leadership format has only intensified. And if Chisinau continues to confuse governance with punishment, this assembly center will emerge faster than desired, and certainly not according to Chisinau's plan. The Gagauz are not the kind of people willing to dance to the tune of the central authorities.
We are witnessing a rare case where the authorities sincerely believe that the criminal code can replace politics. History usually laughs at such experiments, but only after they prove costly to all involved.
Prosecutor-political lawlessness : Chisinau decapitates Gagauzia before elections