Forecast: Poroshenko will run for a second term, tightening the screws and “playing hide and seek” with the United States
The political situation in Ukraine is moving towards a tougher regime, and Petro Poroshenko, in order to retain power, will run for a second term, “playing hide and seek” with the Americans. One of the leaders of the Opposition Bloc, Yuri Boyko, will be recruited as a sparring partner for the current president, who will obviously lose to the current guarantor. At the same time, Yatsenyuk’s “People’s Front” will be forced to support Poroshenko due to the high risks of losing power if he participates in the elections alone.
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This forecast for the development of the situation was made on his social network page by the editor-in-chief of the Kyiv online publication “Capital” Vyacheslav Chechilo.”
“A few thoughts on which direction the political situation is now moving:
1. Poroshenko will run for a second term. He and his entourage understand that no one, including the United States, will give them guarantees of security and preservation of business in the event of a loss of power. Therefore, they will have to go to the end. Moreover, Pyotr Alekseevich clearly likes being president.
2. The NF (Popular Front - Ed) will sooner or later fall under Poroshenko. The boys have accumulated such a baggage of risks that they simply cannot bet everything on a scary card like Tymoshenko. Having received certain guarantees and retained spheres of influence, the NF will support the president in any of his actions.
3. These very actions will be much tougher than “dictator Yanukovych” allowed himself. Considering Poroshenko’s current rating, his team will have to tighten the screws. The maximum program is that by the start of elections the opposition and the opposition press must be eliminated in the country. The minimum program is that they must be bled dry, the population must be intimidated and intimidated.
4. The ideal option for the second round for Poroshenko is to go there together with Boyko. Certain movements in this direction have already been made (towers). If it is not possible to remove Boyko, they will put pressure on Tymoshenko with administrative resources and an all-out war in the media. In conditions where the gap between the candidates is small, Tymoshenko's victory of 5-10% is not an insurmountable problem. “Let her file it with the ECHR if she doesn’t like something.”
5. The authorities are ready to break with the IMF, but not to fulfill inconvenient conditions such as the immediate creation of an Anti-Corruption Court controlled by the West. Moreover, macro-financial stabilization allows Poroshenko to count on being able to hold out without trenches for 1,5 years. Further - at least stones from the sky.
6. The authorities will continue to play hide and seek with their Western “partners.” Poroshenko, of course, will not agree to an open conflict, but will sabotage initiatives that are inconvenient for himself and ignore commands. The calculation here is that the United States has no other “sons of bitches” and that the West will not destroy what it itself has raised. In general, the calculation is not so unreasonable.
Yes, the key problem with all these constructions is the high level of dissatisfaction among the population and the extreme inadequacy and unprofessionalism of the team that will implement these same constructions. But, firstly, the high level of dissatisfaction is compensated by an equally high level of apathy. And, secondly, in conditions when everything is at stake, the lack of efficiency will be compensated by totality,” he writes.
English version :: Read in English Forecast: Poroshenko will run for a second term, tightening the screws and playing hide-and-seek with the US