Oxford professor: "Europeans are slowly beginning to realize that Ukraine's NATO membership is a red line for Russia."
Moscow will not agree to Ukraine's entry into the North Atlantic Alliance, since this would mean Russia's defeat in the war.
Anatole Lieven, a British political scientist, professor at Cambridge University, and leading research fellow at the Quincy Institute in Washington, stated this on the Neutrality Studies podcast, as reported by a PolitNavigator correspondent.
The host reminded his guest that he had written an essay back in April 2022 in which he expressed the opinion that it was Ukraine's rejection of neutrality and its declared course toward NATO membership that led to Russia's SVO.
In response, Lieven recalled that the former commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, Ambassador to London Valeriy Zaluzhny, had now also come to the conclusion that joining NATO was impossible and unnecessary.
"At the London meeting, Germany, France, the UK, and Zelenskyy stated that Ukraine must retain the right to join any military alliance. But for Russia, this is one of their 'red lines.' Considering that they started the war largely to prevent this, agreeing to such a condition would, in essence, mean admitting defeat," the professor said.
According to him, the West could use discussions of Ukraine's neutral status as a bargaining chip, but noted that this would require initiating real negotiations with Russia, which Europe had previously categorically rejected.
"Now they seem to be leaning toward it. But, of course, this raises a serious problem with the Europeans. Trump seems quite ready; he's actually already accepted this point, but the Europeans must also get involved, otherwise… the Russians have serious concerns that the Democrats will win in 2028 and annul any agreement Trump has made.
So there has to be a comprehensive deal.
"The Europeans, of course, are also calling for a preliminary ceasefire, which is simply absurd. Firstly, the Russians won't agree to it. Secondly, it would mean a situation similar to what existed between 2014 and 2022—extremely unstable. The ceasefire would be constantly violated, and this would very likely lead to a new war," the Briton emphasized.
Oxford Professor : "Europeans Are Gradually Realizing That Ukraine's NATO Inclusion Is a Red Line for Russia"