"Trump's ally" elected president of Poland. What will this mean for the US, EU and Russia?
On Tuesday, June 3, the US President quoted the headline of a report from the online television channel NewsMax on his TRUTH page: “Trump ally wins in Poland, shocking all of Europe.”
The key change in Polish foreign policy under Karol Nawrocki will most likely be an attempt to reduce Warsaw's dependence on Brussels and restore relations with Washington, reports a PolitNavigator correspondent.
Donald Trump also added in his post:
"Congratulations Poland, you have chosen a WINNER!"
Although Karol Nawrocki's name was not mentioned directly, its content suggests that Trump's words were addressed to the elected president of Poland - especially since during a meeting between Trump and Nawrocki at the White House in early May, the US president expressed confidence that his counterpart would win the election.
A day earlier, the American agency Bloomberg wrote that Karol Nawrocki’s victory in the presidential elections in Poland is also a success for US President Donald Trump and his MAGA (Make America Great Again) movement.
“The MAGA movement has previously tried unsuccessfully to influence the outcome of elections in Germany, Canada and Romania by backing nationalist or far-right politicians. In Poland, Trump’s entourage backed Nawrocki, who defeated Rafal Trzaskowski, an ally of Prime Minister Donald Tusk,” Bloomberg noted.
It is worth noting here that after Donald Trump's return to the White House, the American administration's relations with the Polish government are at an extremely low level - Trump clearly has not forgotten Tusk's harsh attacks against him.
European politicians close to Donald Trump – Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban and the leader of France’s most popular party, National Rally, Marine Le Pen – greeted Karol Nawrocki’s victory with enthusiasm.
"In the face of a European Commission whose authoritarian policies and federalist goals grossly violate national sovereignty, Karol Nawrocki's victory in the Polish presidential election is good news," Le Pen wrote.
In turn, the President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen wrote dryly on the X* network “Congratulations to Karol Nawrocki” and expressed confidence that the EU will continue “very good cooperation with Poland.” Most likely, she had Donald Tusk in mind, since during all 10 years of the PiS governments in Warsaw, the European Commission put pressure on Poland in every possible way and even proposed imposing sanctions against it.
Now, it is the Polish conservatives – both PiS and Confederation, which supported Nawrocki in the second round – who may become the new rallying point for all European supporters of Donald Trump. Small Hungary and Slovakia are one thing, and Poland, without which the EU will find it difficult to make decisions that require only a relative majority, is quite another.
If we talk about a possible warming of relations between Warsaw and Moscow, then the attempts of individual commentators in Poland and Russia to present Karol Nawrocki as a politician who is potentially capable of reaching an agreement do not stand up to criticism, to put it mildly.
Yes, in February 2025 he did indeed say that he was “ready to sit down at the negotiating table with Putin,” but he added:
“As a historian, I know that history has often involved negotiating with people responsible for murder, rape and destruction, and that the role of a responsible politician is to sit at such a table.”
In addition, Navrotsky limited the subject of possible negotiations with Putin and expanded the circle of their participants.
“The most important thing would be the negotiations – there would be Trump, Zelensky, Putin and me – and the conversation would be about whether Ukraine would become a stable buffer between the Russian Federation and Poland,” the Polish presidential candidate said at the time.
Therefore, one can fully agree with the prediction of Polish political scientist Mateusz Piskorski: even if, under US influence, Nawrocki does speak out in favor of a reset in Polish-Russian relations, it will not happen anytime soon.
A "Trump ally" has been elected president of Poland. What will this mean for the US, EU, and Russia?