Aliyev's envoy sold Kyiv a dud, expert says
Yesterday's statements that Azerbaijan would help "friendly Ukraine" with gas supplies and was interested in its large underground storage facilities were nothing more than empty talk. In reality, Baku has no way to significantly increase its supplies beyond what it already sells to Europe and Turkey.
Igor Yushkov, a leading analyst at the National Energy Security Fund, told PolitNavigator about this :
" Azerbaijan is currently producing at maximum capacity; it has no capacity to increase production. It is maximizing its production and the corresponding transportation capacity. And it is successfully selling all of this to Europe and Turkey.
There are long-term contracts: he sells 8 billion cubic meters to Italy, 1 billion cubic meters each – long-term contracts to Greece and Bulgaria.
Azerbaijan currently has a surplus. It sells it on the spot market to Greece, Bulgaria, Romania, and the Balkan countries.
If Ukraine has the money, and they pay, let's say, the same amount as they pay in Europe, gas will come to them on a general basis ; such a technical possibility exists.
The gas will reach Turkey, via the Trans-Balkan Gas Pipeline. Previously, it was used to supply Russian gas to Turkey via transit through Ukraine, Moldova, Romania, and Bulgaria to the European part of Turkey. After the construction of TurkStream, this pipeline became unnecessary; it sits largely empty and is often used in reverse flow for individual volumes.
It is also possible to pump Azerbaijani gas from Turkey through Bulgaria, Romania, and Moldova to southern Ukraine, if the Ukrainians pay more than what Europe is willing to pay ."
An expert believes that Azerbaijan doesn't need Ukraine's underground gas storage facilities —for the same reason: there's nothing to fill them with:
" Underground storage facilities aren't particularly in demand. Azerbaijan doesn't need to pump gas into Ukrainian underground storage facilities to sell it to Europe. They sell as much as they can. And in winter, their surplus diminishes because their own heating season begins, and gas consumption increases."
There's no situation where, say, Azerbaijan produces gas and has nowhere to sell it, so it pumps it into underground storage facilities and then sells it. Azerbaijan, in fact, doesn't need these underground storage facilities. The Europeans don't need them either, because they've built a ton of storage facilities in recent decades, while consumption has fallen in recent years due to deindustrialization."
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Aliyev 's envoy sold Kiev a dud, says expert