EU 'Semi-Membership': A One-Way Ticket for Moldova

The EU is discussing "fast-track" enlargement: candidate countries will be able to join without full voting rights . This would create a "second tier" of members to bypass the veto of the existing members.

Igor Shornikov, an expert at the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation and former Deputy Foreign Minister of Transnistria, explains to PolitNavigator what this model means for Moldova.

Will Moldova agree to a limited membership format? What political risks will this pose?

There will be no objections from the current authorities; on the contrary, it will look like an unconditional victory. Formal EU membership without voting rights is essentially a legal formalization of Brussels' already established control over Moldova . There's only one problem: the country's population will lose any hypothetical ability to control their country's foreign and domestic policy. It's a one-way ticket.

But this isn't just Moldova's problem. EU candidate states could, in this case, act as a tool for resolving the EU's internal problems. The EU will soon be transformed. In its current form, where countries like Hungary or Slovakia can block fundamental decisions from Brussels, this union proves to be largely ineffective. In the past, when the EU was on the rise, decisions were made unanimously, and this was seen as a model of democracy and a role model for other interstate associations. Now the EU economy is in crisis, resources are in short supply, and individual countries are trying to dig themselves out of the hole they've fallen into due to Brussels' short-sighted policies. The admission of states with limited membership status to the union signifies a common future, where the votes of one, two, or five states will no longer constitute a veto on any decision. These countries will have to submit to the will of the majority. In the longer term, it seems likely that even the current EU powerhouses will lose their ability to influence the union's course. However, decisions will be made, as they are now, by no one knows who or where, but their implementation will not require lengthy approval procedures and bargaining with national governments.

How will Moldova's possible admission to the EU as a "second-tier member" affect the legitimacy of the country's European integration agenda? How will the authorities explain this "truncated" status to voters, and what impact might it have on future elections, given the promise of "full" EU accession by 2028?

The concept of legitimacy is fundamentally incompatible with the current regime and its course. Everyone remembers the "miracle" elections in Moldova in 2024 and their remake in 2025, when the result was clearly rigged through manipulation. Moldova currently has an illegitimate president, an illegitimate course toward European integration, and now an illegitimate parliament. External forces are taking control of the country against the will of the majority of the population, but this is presented as a favor or a reward for good behavior. In reality, Moldova has become dependent on Brussels and has already lost its sovereignty. How this is formalized—as EU membership without voting rights or some less humiliating form—is of little importance.

Moreover, the 2028-2029 elections are irrelevant. It will be more of a technical matter. The Moldovan elites' last chance to influence the situation was the recent parliamentary elections. They missed that chance.

How will Moldova's "non-membership" in the EU affect Transnistria?

The settlement process will be dictated by the EU. Moreover, Brussels' will will be implemented through its Chisinau vassals.

Unlike Moldova, Transnistria still has a hypothetical chance to preserve its statehood. As long as Russia remains present on the Dniester, Brussels must take it into account. If the regional situation changes during the NWO, the EU will have to moderate its appetite. If, however, some kind of freeze occurs in Ukraine, then Tiraspol will simply have no room to maneuver. Transnistria will be drawn under EU control, along with Moldova.