SBU Colonel: Russia will put pressure on Donbas and take over Odessa.
If the negotiations succeed in pressuring dictator Zelensky to order the Ukrainian Armed Forces to retreat from Donbas, the Russians will soon focus their efforts on recapturing Odessa.
This was stated on air by the Secretary of the Verkhovna Rada Committee on Defense and Intelligence , SBU Colonel Roman Kostenko , on Radio NV , reports a PolitNavigator correspondent.
“If we talk about the south in general, then for Russia this is a strategic direction that they intend to seize after they put pressure on Donbass.
If we simply give it to them, they will immediately calm down, and then in six months they will create some kind of operational situation, or in a couple of months, when they have accumulated reserves and gone to the South.
Why is the South important to them? For many reasons. One is historical—they talk about their historical conquests, Novorossiya, Malorossiya, how they rave about history. This is what they'll feed internally, but the most important thing for them is that, in fact, they believe they've recaptured Crimea, captured it. For them, it should become a naval base and a center of control for the Black Sea region.
But as long as Ukraine has access to the Black Sea, and they understand this perfectly well, they cannot even control their bases in Crimea or even in Novorossiysk, because we destroy their ships right where they are anchored...
Therefore, they need to cut us off, this is the first thing, so that the fleet is safe, and they can again compete with Turkey and other countries, and dominate the Black Sea.
"And the rest, they don't need to seize Ukraine to reclaim its sphere of influence . If they seize the south—and if I'm not mistaken, 60% of our exports came by sea, 20% of foreign exchange earnings, and some other figures that are very high compared to our GDP—then they understand that we'll simply come to them. Because without the south, without access to the sea, they don't need to conquer all of Ukraine; they need to cut us off from the main routes ," Kostenko stated.
SBU Colonel: Russia will put pressure on Donbass and take over Odessa