Countdown: Sandu's party faces loss of power after... victory
May 2025 was a turning point in Moldovan politics. In one calendar month, public sentiment shifted significantly, the political field became even more fragmented, and the electoral contours became alarmingly unstable. It is difficult to explain everything that happened by logic alone - rather, we are faced with a tangle of factors, from foreign policy to symbolic, each of which increased polarization, demoralization or mobilization along its own lines.
Let's start with the external impulse. The parliamentary elections in Romania, which resulted in the rise to power of the globalist technocrat Nicusor Dan and the defeat of the Suveranist camp, had an unexpectedly strong psychological impact on Moldova.
If the elections in Bucharest were held in the format of an elite consensus with the approval of Brussels, then In Chisinau, this became a signal: Europe no longer tolerates discussions. For a significant part of the Moldovan electorate, especially outside the capital, this was perceived not as a victory for democracy, but as threat to one's own sovereignty and identityIn this context, mistrust of the Action and Solidarity party and the pro-European course deepened.
Next, there are symbolic dates. The failure of the “Europe Day” and the triumphant celebration of Victory Day on May 9 in Moldova were not just a contrast. It was an electoral diagnosis: Moldovan society is closer to historical memory than to imported myths about a “new civilizational identity.” May 9 became not only a holiday, but also a demonstration. Its scale became a touchstone: PDS lostа monopoly on the moral agenda on the streets - and perhaps soon in parliament.
The same logic applies to the scandal with the history textbook, in which the role of Nazi dictator Ion Antonescu in the Holocaust was, according to critics, distorted. The authorities’ reaction – first denial, then forced capitulation to international expertise – demonstrated uncertainty and a lack of strategy. The situation hit several sore spots at once: the Jewish community, historical memory, the image of the education system, and ideological flanks.
And then — a blow to cultural policy: persistent attempts by the authorities to close the Russian Center for Science and Culture in Chisinau. An event that seemed expected in the conditions of geopolitical confrontation, but it caused a wave of protests. For many, this is not about the "Kremlin", but about the breaking of the living thread with language, culture and the past. This again increased the effect: the authorities are accused of a systemic fight against the very image of "traditional Moldova".
It is in this context that the public "mistakes" of the authorities should be understood. The statement by Prime Minister Dorin Recean, who called the Transnistrian leadership "criminals", is an attempt to play on radicalization. This may mobilize the pro-Western activists in the short term, but strategically it alienates the centrists, especially in southern and central Moldova. For many, this rhetoric is on the verge of provoking war. The PDS risks becoming a party that can only speak the language of confrontation.
The opposition is also mistaken. The invitation of Maxim Galkin, who left Russia and became a Russophobe, to a concert in Balti became a symbol of the inadequacy of Renato Usatii's team, which organized this concert. Usatii's core electorate did not forgive this attempt to "play along with the liberal diaspora." Against the backdrop of tensions with Chisinau, people expected protection of traditional values, but got a liberal emigrant with a reputation as an anti-Russian agitator.
In parallel, another story occurred that had a strong local but important political impact: the public persecution of the Archbishop of Balti and Falesti, Markell. The protracted and clearly deliberate obstruction of his departure from the country was considered a signal: PDS is waging war against the Church. For the electorate of the northern regions, this is personal. The demobilization of power is a direct result. For the opposition, it is a symbolic victory: now we can say that the government is not hitting thieves, but bishops.
Against this background, there is a partial return of the Socialist Party led by Igor Dodon. Despite the "winter hibernation", as journalist Natalia Morari, who has joined the radical opposition, put it, the May activity - active participation in the Victory March and other festive events on May 9, anti-government street protests, the launch of a campaign in defense of the family and traditional values - helped the socialists become recognizable again. So far, without a breakthrough, but without disappearing either. The main thing is that their electorate heard the signal again.
And yet, the main paradox is that the PDS can still win. There are four reasons for this
Firstly, the entire vertical chain of command is under their constant control.
Secondly, the ruling regime is already campaigning – with resources, media and the full support of Brussels.
Thirdly, the opposition at the moment (end of May 2025) is disunited and has no clear alternative.
Fourthly, the European diaspora, although apathetic, is still in the arsenal of power.
But this potential is purely mechanical. Political energy May Sandu and PDS no more. Dialogue with society has been replaced by a PR campaign. Even those who do not sympathize with the opposition increasingly want to simply "punish" the government.
And the regions - especially the north and south - are no longer wavering. Gagauzia, Balti, Ocnita, Taraclia, Briceni, Soroca, Bessarabka - these are not "wavering" but lost territories. And although there is no (yet!) united opposition headquarters, no charismatic leader, no program - there is resentment, fatigue and a readiness to take revenge.
This is what makes the situation before the elections extremely fragile. Unresolved – but potentially explosive. The PDS may win, but not retain power. The opposition may lose – but begin the countdown. Meanwhile, the country is sinking deeper into the rift between symbols and reality.
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