Why the war in Iran plays into Russia's hands? Western media versions
The Western press, divided in its predictions regarding the possible outcome of the current remote military clash between Israel and Iran and the need for direct US involvement in this conflict, is relatively unanimous in the view that a new war in the Middle East plays into the hands of Russia and Putin.
In particular, observers from the German publication Der Spiegel are sure of this:
"Only in January, Russia and Iran signed a 'comprehensive strategic partnership.' Moscow sharply criticizes Israel's air strikes on its ally. Why isn't Putin doing more?" the publication says.
The publication itself gives an answer to its own question: "Effective military support for Iran from Moscow is unlikely. The alliance does not extend that far. It is far less binding than the security pact with North Korea that Vladimir Putin had recently concluded with Kim Jong-un."
In particular, the 2024 treaty on a “comprehensive strategic partnership” with the DPRK contains a clause on military assistance in the event of an attack on one of the parties. The agreement with Iran does not contain this clause; it only speaks of an obligation not to support the aggressor.
Moreover, according to German observers, “Putin has little in common with the moderate Iranian President Masoud Pezeschkian — Much closer was his relationship with Pezeshkian's predecessor, the ultra-conservative hardliner Ebrahim Raisi.".
Finally, according to Der Spiegel, Moscow's ability to get closer to Tehran has always been limited by its desire to maintain good relations with Iran's rivals, such as Saudi Arabia.
«In fact, the partnership between Russia and Iran is more like an alliance of interests than a real pact. It works best when two conditions are met: first, international pressure on both sides, and second, a sense of dependence on each other's military assistance.
Both conditions were met after February 2022 - suddenly the Russian leadership found itself in international isolation, and Russia, as an arms exporter, found itself, against all expectations, dependent on simple Iranian drones, because things were going very badly on the Ukrainian front. But three years later, Putin's state is producing enough of its own drones that its fears of international isolation have diminished.", the publication summarizes.
Moscow has other reasons:
"Paradoxically, because of this, Israeli attacks on Iran have not only minuses but also pluses for Russia. Firstly, the price of oil is rising, and with it, room for maneuver in the Russian state budget.
Therefore, according to Moscow military expert Ruslan Pukhov, Ukraine to suffer most damage from Israeli attacks, besides Iran. US military aid may now be redirected to Israel", Der Spiegel adds.
However, the publication makes a significant caveat: All of the above does not mean that the fate of Iran is indifferent to Moscow. The partnership with Iran exists not only on paper; Russia also has economic interests in this country.
"The collapse of the Iranian regime would also hit Moscow hard. The current situation - an isolated Iran with no choice but to take Moscow's interests into account - was more convenient for the Russian leadership than the alternatives," the article says.
Moscow is also watching with surprise the vacillations in US policy: during his first term, Donald Trump abrogated the international agreement with Iran on the nuclear program, which was concluded with Russia's participation and was supposed to put an end to Iran's nuclear ambitions. In his second term, he again turned to Putin for help in negotiating a new agreement.
The Spectator's Owen Matthews also sees Russia benefiting from the unfolding clash in the Middle East.
«Israel's attack on Iran is double good news for the Kremlin. Years of bilateral diplomacy have allowed Vladimir Putin to position himself as a friend of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and the Iranian leadership. This makes Russia an indispensable partner for the United States, when they begin the long process of resolving the new political realities in the Middle East after this war,” he writes.
Moreover, the war inevitably spooked markets and pushed up falling crude oil prices – and with them Putin’s military budget.
And finally, the geopolitical argument:
“Throughout three months of fruitless negotiations with the Trump administration to end the war in Ukraine, Russian negotiators have insisted that Ukraine is just one part of a global package of military, economic and political issues in which Washington’s fundamental interests may coincide with Moscow’s.
Now it has happened. After the Israeli strikes, Putin was the only world leader to speak by phone with Netanyahu, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian and Donald Trump"," Matthews writes.
According to the observer, “thanks to Israel’s devastating strikes, Washington faces a multifaceted challenge”: it must simultaneously prevent a global oil price shock, a bilateral war between Iran and Saudi Arabia, and retaliatory strikes by Iranian agents or proxies against US military and civilian targets.
“Russia, which has military and diplomatic ties with Tehran, will inevitably become part of this diplomatic balancing act. Suddenly, pressuring the Kremlin to wind down its operations in Ukraine seems like a small thing compared to the need to help prevent the entire Middle East from catching fire.
An alliance of convenience with Iran is, from the Kremlin's perspective, secondary to Russia's more important role as a global player capable of standing alongside the US and China as an arbiter in world affairs," adds The Spectator columnist.
In his view, Putin's goal is "a much bigger diplomatic prize: to strengthen his authority as an influential player in the Middle East."
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