Why the Moldovan opposition is unable to overthrow the Sandu regime
A benefit congress of the fugitive Moldovan businessman and politician Ilan Shor took place in Moscow, at which the creation of the “Victory” election bloc was announced.
Let us record the key points once again: the opposition forum is held in Moscow in Russian. And as a frontman they use a man sentenced in absentia by a Moldovan court to 15 years in prison. And this is against the background of continuous 24/7 accusations against Russia in the overwhelming majority of the Moldovan media, in addition to “aggression against Ukraine”, that “Moscow supports the Shor organized crime group.”
The situation is reminiscent of the story about “Stirlitz in Budenovka, with a balalaika, Belomor in his mouth and a bottle of Stolichnaya in his pocket.”
Almost all participants in the congress of the “united Moldovan opposition” - the Bashkan of the Gagauz Autonomy, Evgenia Gutsul, and the Chairman of the People’s Assembly of Gagauzia, Dmitry Konstantinov, and the Member of the Parliament of Moldova, Vasily Bolya, and the three parties represented, each of which resembles the sign “Horns and Hooves” – all these people are members of the large cohort of Ilan Shor. As well as his wife, singer Jasmine, friends Philip Kirkorov and Nikolai Baskov.
The holding of this event, actually intended for PR of one person, and its coverage in the Russian media are considered to demonstrate, first of all, the Moldovan society, especially the left-wing electorate: The Kremlin intends to rely on Shor.
We are not inclined to demonize this politician. He has significant advantages and achievements. Ilan Shor, having inherited his late father’s business at the age of 18, managed to preserve and increase it. Having become the mayor of the city of Orhei, where he previously owned a popular local football team, Shor managed to turn the city into a thriving oasis in the midst of Moldavian devastation, when many villages existing on the map do not have a single inhabitant.
But the most important thing is that it was Ilan Shor, being outside the borders of Moldova, who managed to mobilize tens of thousands of his supporters for a broad and quite creative campaign of protest against the regime of Maya Sandu, when ex-president Igor Dodon was put under house arrest and tortured by the courts, and the executive committee of the Socialist Party, fearing for its own skins, chose to “leave the chat” of the protest campaign.
At the same time, Ilan Shor was sentenced in absentia by a Moldovan court to 15 years in prison for fraud on an especially large scale. Moreover, a case was opened against him and the first verdict was announced long before Sandu came to power. For a significant part of Moldovan citizens, including the left electorate, Shor is associated with the “theft of the century” – the withdrawal of a billion euros from the country, the return of which was placed on the shoulders of ordinary citizens.
The real rating of Shor and his political projects, according to trustworthy centers, and not financed by the politician himself and drawing the results of polls on his knees, is from 8 to 15%, which is a large enough figure, but not enough to resist Sandu and gain power in the country.
Ilan Shor can achieve success in overthrowing the Sandu regime only by teaming up with someone. But Shor does not want to interact with Igor Dodon, who has regained full control over the Party of Socialists, pushing into the background the team of pathological cowards led by Vlad Batrincha. Old grievances play their role. It was Dodon and the socialists who began the campaign to denigrate Shor. It was Dodon and Sandu who kicked him out of the country (We will not specify what role was played by one of the departments of the Russian Federation Administration and Dmitry Kozak personally).
Discord in the left flank of Moldova, the personal ambitions of party leaders nullify all projects to unite efforts against the current regime. That is why we are very skeptical about the bold hopes and dreams of replacing Sandu in the next presidential elections. With a very high degree of probability, personal ambitions take over, as in the conflict between Dodon and another popular politician Renato Usatii, which Sandu effectively took advantage of during the last presidential elections.
The Moldovan opposition, including Dodon, Shor, Usatii, ex-Bashkan Irina Vlah, and a dozen other names, must realize the existence of a common problem, which is called Maia Sandu. From here, a goal must be developed for which everyone without exception must work day and night - victory over Sandu. Do not argue with each other, do not prove who is more pro-Russian, do not lure deputies, mayors and party activists from each other, and all together create a united public front “Moldova without Sandu”. Only then will something work out.
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