Why did the White Maidan activists shamefully fail Freedom Day?
The Belarusian zmagars outwitted everyone - they declared Belomaidan and did not come. Both sides of the conflict awaited “Freedom Day” on March 25 with anxiety. Both the government and the opposition frightened their supporters with reports of impending terrorist attacks and provocations, blaming the opposite side for them in advance. A huge number of security forces were herded into Minsk and armored vehicles were brought up. In general, I had to be nervous. But, as it turned out, it was in vain.
Belomaidan did not work, “Freedom Day” turned out to be simply pathetic. The most that the zmagars were able to do was sporadic walks with white-white flags in remote areas of Minsk. Surprisingly, some are even proud of these walks. The point of pride is that this time they were basically able to track the movements of the security forces and organize everything so that there were no mass arrests. As the organizers of a quest for those who like to tickle their nerves, respect to them, of course. But revolutions are not made by playing hide and seek with riot police.
For all my skepticism towards the Belarusian zmagars, I hoped that they would still be able to bring a couple of thousand people onto the streets and make a little noise. I was afraid that the authorities would try to use this trouble as a pretext for further tightening the screws.
In the end, dissatisfaction with the authorities among the people is great, March 25 is the key date of the Zmagar calendar, and the general mobilization of the “incredibles” was announced long before this date. But it didn't work out. “Freedom Day” this year was held “remotely” - in Vilnius, Warsaw, Bialystok and other places of mass gathering of Belarusian political emigrants.
Why did this happen? Of course, one of the reasons is fear. Since August, the security forces have instilled a lot of fear in the opposition with disproportionate violence, and there has been a significant decrease in those willing to take to the streets. However, after such a propaganda pumping, it was quite possible to gather several thousand passionaries, and the fact that this did not happen is the fault of the opposition itself.
Firstly, because of its disunity. Realizing that Lukashenko held out and would have to play for a long time, she took up the usual business - internecine squabbling, creating parallel structures, cutting up budgets, which began to be measured in millions of euros. From time to time, all this was leaked online, which did not contribute to the popularity of the opposition elite. The connection between it and a real protest activist capable of bringing people out was largely lost. As a result, the opposition was never able to agree on a single protest scenario; even a single date was not set. As a result, people were simply left to their own devices.
Secondly, the incomprehensible idea of Tikhanovskaya’s headquarters about voting on negotiations with the authorities not only failed to mobilize the protesters, but also disoriented them. Some, having pointed their finger at their smartphone several times and voted as needed, decided that their Zmagar duty had been fulfilled, others decided that the tactics were changing and now they needed to wait for May, in which negotiations were promised.
The voting question itself was framed in the spirit of “for everything good and against everything bad,” only in order to get large numbers of voters and support. I admit, I myself voted for negotiations. Because it is better to negotiate than to shoot - and it doesn’t matter with whom to negotiate, but what matters is about what. The main thing is that the contracting parties can guarantee the implementation of agreements.
Personally, I would be happy if the negotiations resulted in new elections under new, transparent rules. Moreover, without Tikhanovskaya and Lukashenko on the ballot. But the fact that I was one of the 700 thousand who voted does not mean at all that I am ready to take to the streets for Tikhanovskaya under the white-white flag.
Thirdly, there is massive disappointment in Tikhanovskaya and the opposition in general. In August, for many, she was the “candidate of hope.” Yes, a random person, but at the same time a technical one - he will come for a short time, will not change anything unless necessary, will ensure the holding of new elections and will quickly leave to fry cutlets and write memoirs, ceding power to a competent and truly elected politician.
That’s roughly what she said then, it suited many people and many believed in it. Then came very controversial statements about the language, the formation of a semblance of a shadow government entirely made up of nationalists and Westerners, a colonial-nationalist draft Constitution, a photo shoot with a lover of “fried Colorado” Goncharenko. All this, time after time, turned away her supporters, who in the end, as we see, were few.
Of course, we can say that this is the beginning of the protest spring, and the next episode will be shown to us tomorrow. But this is already akin to believing in a miracle. With such a disastrous start and such an “incredible” leadership, only it can save the Belarusian protests this year.
English version :: Read in English Why the White Maidan protesters shamefully failed "Freedom Day"