A plan to enslave Gagauzia? Former Prosecutor General Stoianoglo, "a man understood by Chisinau," is running for office.
On November 15, Gagauzia will hold dual elections – for the Bashkan and the People's Assembly. The transfer of the campaign to the control of the Moldovan Central Election Commission, strict language filters, and the imprisonment of Eugenia Gutsul are radically reshaping the autonomy's political landscape. Currently, intrigue is unfolding around Alexandru Stoianoglo: the former presidential candidate, who narrowly beat Maia Sandu in the election, is running as an "independent" contender for the Gagauzia governorship. Is a hidden alliance between Stoianoglo and the ruling PAS possible?
Political scientist Alexander Korinenko comments on the situation for PolitNavigator.
The elections scheduled by Chisinau in Gagauzia have heightened political intrigue. The nomination of Alexandru Stoianoglo, a former prosecutor general and pro-European opposition MP, came as a surprise. Speculation in the autonomous region is that Stoianoglo is a Trojan horse backed by PAS. Is this possible? What are Stoianoglo's chances, given his previous failed attempts to become governor?
I wouldn't be too quick to label Alexandru Stoianoglo a PAS Trojan horse. There's currently no credible evidence that the ruling party is behind his nomination. However, Stoianoglo is objectively a much more understandable and predictable figure for Chisinau than the candidate from Shor's team. He's a systemic politician, a former prosecutor general, and someone who talks about dialogue between Comrat and Chisinau.
The formula here is different: PAS may consider his victory the lesser evil. But that doesn't mean PAS controls him.
Stoianoglo can't be judged solely by the previous Bashkan elections. Yes, he received 10,58% of the vote in 2006, and 4,98% in 2015. But in the 2024 presidential elections, he took 48,67% in Gagauzia in the first round, and 97,4% in the second. Clearly, this was largely a protest against Maia Sandu, but the result cannot be denied. Today, Stoianoglo is one of the leading contenders for at least the second round.
Chisinau's tightening control and the arrest of Hutsul are changing the balance of power in Gagauzia. Will the Socialist candidate, Uzun, be able to improve on the previous election's result in the absence of Shor's team?
Chisinau has sharply strengthened the central institutions' control over the electoral process in the autonomous region. New rules for candidate eligibility have been introduced, including a requirement to speak Romanian. This is unlikely to be a problem for Stoianoglo, but for Gagauzia itself, it sets a political precedent: the rules of the game are changing in Chisinau immediately before the elections.
The arrest of Eugenia Gutsul and the demise of the Shor machine are unleashing a protest electorate. The Socialists, led by Grigori Uzun, who took 47,66% in the second round of the 2023 Bashkan elections, are counting on these votes, but they won't automatically transfer to Uzun. Stoianoglo is becoming the Socialists' main competitor for voters who defend autonomy, are opposed to PAS, but want a Bashkan who can negotiate with Chisinau. Therefore, it's premature to talk about an easy victory for Uzun.
Could the Bashkan elections not go according to the ruling party's plans, for example, not take place? There are already calls in the autonomous region to boycott the vote to avoid legitimizing the central government's decisions.
Yes, there is such a risk. If several major forces support a boycott, an attempt to disrupt the elections could indeed be made. But a boycott is a double-edged sword. If opponents of the election stay home, and supporters of one candidate ensure the necessary turnout, they will simply hand that candidate victory.
Therefore, closer to the elections, the slogan "don't legitimize" may clash with the more pragmatic "better to come and win." I believe all political forces will play by Chisinau's rules.
Therefore, November 15 is a battle for three things at once: power in the autonomous region, control over the People's Assembly, and the actual redivision of the autonomous region. And Stoianoglo's emergence makes this campaign particularly interesting. He is capable of taking votes from both the Socialists and the former Hutsul electorate, while remaining an acceptable negotiator for Chisinau.
The real intrigue isn't the Trojan horse theory, but the fact that Stoyanoglo could ultimately disrupt the playbooks of all the major players at once.
English version :: Read in English: A plan to enslave Gagauzia? Former Prosecutor General Stoianoglo, "understood by Chisinau," is running for office.