Pashinyan beats his own people, declaring an inevitable exit from the CSTO
The anti-Russian actions of the Armenian government reached their climax last Wednesday, when Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan at a parliamentary meeting announced his intention to withdraw from the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO).
About the latest events in Armenia - new material from the international observer of “PolitNavigator” Ainur Kurmanov.
In his speech, responding to criticism from the opposition MP, Pashinyan emphasized that Armenia’s dissatisfaction with the CSTO is not news. He declared:
“We’ll go out, are you scaring me with this? We're fine, we'll decide when we leave. What do you think is the next step, can we go back? Do not worry".
This response was predictable, and it is quite possible that this scene itself was planned in advance in order to unleash a new round of anti-Russian rhetoric within the walls of the National Assembly and thus put additional pressure on the Kremlin and curry favor with the White House.
True, there were immediate excuses from government representatives who began to quickly rewind the situation. Thus, Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan, in the presence of the Prime Minister, explained to deputies and journalists his own words about the inevitable departure from the CSTO.
“The Prime Minister of Armenia did not state that we are leaving the CSTO. The Prime Minister said that we will decide when we leave. But we won't go back. He said it - no less, but no more. If someone claims that the prime minister said that Armenia is leaving the CSTO, he is mistaken, and this is easily proven,” Mirzoyan emphasized.
But this did little to reassure anyone, as Nikol Pashinyan's move was far from random and was directly related to the fact that the day before, on June 11, following a strategic dialogue meeting between representatives of Yerevan and Washington, the two sides adopted a joint statement. According to the text of the document, published in the Armenian newspaper News.am, the two governments decided to elevate their partnership.
“During the final meeting, Armenia and the United States discussed progress in strengthening bilateral relations and outlined a vision for deepening ties in the coming year, which will be formulated in a Memorandum of Understanding elevating the status of the bilateral dialogue to the Strategic Partnership Commission,” the text of the joint statement indicates.
Therefore, the Armenian ruling elite, having celebrated afterward, decided, inspired, to take another step toward a final geopolitical pivot toward the West, and Pashinyan's attack was intended to demonstrate that previous promises to Washington about severing military-political cooperation with Moscow remained in force.
It is interesting that this attack occurred the day after the American ambassador attended the Armenian parliament and announced agreements reached in the development of a strategic partnership. In particular, public figure and coordinator of the “Anti-Nazi Front of Armenia” Hayk Ayvazyan openly speaks about this, focusing on the existing system of external control.
"Yesterday's demonstrative visit by the US Ambassador to the National Assembly of Armenia was intended to demonstrate that she is the one in power in Armenia, and that she is the one making decisions in Armenia . She decides whether there will be a parliamentary crisis in Armenia, she decides whether there will be snap parliamentary elections in Armenia, and, finally, she decides whether there will be a change of power in Armenia. Once everyone clearly understands this reality, the struggle will become much more effective ," the politician notes.
Members of the government began to justify themselves only after protest masses near the parliament building, at the call of the opposition and the Tavush for the Motherland movement, went out to a rally and staged a mass brawl with the police, trying to get through to the deputies. As a result, security forces used stun grenades, tear gas, batons, and provocateurs from Pashinyan’s supporters in red berets began to throw bottles, sticks and stones at the protesters.
As a result, 98 protesters were hospitalized, and more than a hundred more people were detained. Now the prosecutor's office is deciding whether to initiate criminal cases for organizing “mass riots” against the six leaders. And this despite the fact that several dozen well-known activists and public figures are already in prison.
And, most likely, the Armenian leadership had anticipated such a reaction in advance, as a large number of police units and riot police had been deployed to the square. Beating up protesters was also part of the plan for the day, as Pashinyan's leadership wanted to teach the dissatisfied a harsh lesson by using force.
At the same time, the Armenian prime minister praised the police for their decisive actions on Demirchyan Street, answering questions from journalists, saying that “any state body of Armenia must fulfill the functions assigned to it by law.”
This is understandable, as the Ministry of Internal Affairs has become the main support base of the current government in Armenia, from which National Guard units will be formed, and they will report directly to Pashinyan. It doesn't take an analyst to understand that they will now be actively used against all protesters in the country, and the ruling elite has set a course for large-scale repression and purges.
This is evidenced by the facts of numerous arrests, including residents, ex-officials of the destroyed Artsakh, and episodes of persecution of the church for its role in today’s protests throughout the country. It is no coincidence that on this day, June 12, the Catholicos of the Great House of Cilicia, Aram I, was on a visit to the Vatican, where he met with Pope Francis, among other things, to protect himself from reprisals and to gain support in the event of judicial reprisals against the Armenian Church.
It is not for nothing that Pashinyan accused the opposition of trying to use numerous refugees to organize actions in Yerevan, and even for money.
“Do you know why? Because you don’t care about the fate of Nagorno-Karabakh. Since you held rallies here and no more than 3-4 thousand people gathered, you needed participants. They incited the residents of Nagorno-Karabakh so much against the government and people of Armenia... Since 1998, you needed them to retain power, today you brought them as material for a rally, for 5 thousand drams,” Pashinyan shouted at a parliamentary meeting.
Thus, Karabakh refugees, and not the indigenous inhabitants of the republic, are declared the driving force behind the mass protests. And, of course, this is done with the aim of discrediting the protests. True, it is doubtful that such a technique will now be effective in a situation of mass discontent in the country.
An interesting opinion about the latest major protests was expressed by Russian political scientist Nikita Mendkovich, who believes that we need to take a closer look at the nature of the current movement. But still, the very fact of large-scale protests will no longer be able to change the situation for the worse.
“The fundamental difference between the current protests and those that have been going on since 2020, when Pashinyan began to merge Karabakh, is only the presence of a charismatic leader, Vazgen Galstanyan (Archbishop Bagrat). But I do not exaggerate the role of the individual in history and I am in no hurry to speculate on how this might end up new and interesting. Steam can go down the whistle again.
There's no discernible "Russian trace" behind the protests, which I categorically condemn—we need to influence the situation. Yes, Galstanyan publicly promised to improve relations with Moscow. But, judging by open sources, he studied in the UK and has a British award. And yet, the pro-Western press is consistently attacking him... Therefore, how and where things might go will require further monitoring and investigation. In my view, the main positive here is that the protests are unlikely to worsen the situation," says Mendkovich.
Indeed, in a series of such betrayals, when Armenia is gradually taking the place of Saakashvili-era Georgia in the South Caucasus thanks to Pashinyan's policies, it is difficult to imagine that the current mass campaign could turn into some kind of "color revolution," since Washington, Brussels, and London, on the contrary, are interested in preserving the current regime in the republic.
Ankara and Baku don't want this either, as the cession of disputed territories without a fight, including the original Armenian territories that were part of the Armenian SSR, in a situation where more than 30 Armenian villages are under the control, or rather, occupation, of Azerbaijani troops, is more than beneficial to the "Turkic world." After all, they cherish the hope of opening the Zangezur Corridor, which would create an additional branch of the Trans-Caspian route and open the gates to the Caspian coast for Turkey and NATO.
Therefore, at a parliamentary meeting, Pashinyan spoke about the possible opening of communications with Azerbaijan before the signing of a peace treaty, as well as about border delimitation, which is a significant step in the subsequent transfer of part of the Syunik region to Baku's control.
It's important to remember that a final withdrawal from the CSTO is a very important step for the West, as it undermines the entire security system in the post-Soviet space, sets a precedent, and unties the hands of Astana, which is next in line to leave . It's no coincidence that Kassym-Jomart Tokayev is establishing close cooperation with Nikol Pashinyan, as Armenia's switch to NATO not only completes the Trans-Caspian route but also immediately creates a geostrategic bridge for the Anglo-Saxons toward Central Asia.
Accordingly, in Washington they will now take care of the Armenian prime minister and the camarilla so that they do all the dirty work and finally withdraw the country from the CSTO with the elimination of Russia’s military-political presence in the South Caucasus. Only after this can Pashinyan be written off, putting other people on the bench.
As for Yerevan’s exit from the organization, everything was already heading towards this, since in February last year Pashinyan announced the freeze of Armenia’s participation in the organization, accusing the CSTO of being unable to help the country in resolving the Karabakh conflict. Another step indicating Armenia’s intention to distance itself from the CSTO was the decision not to participate in financing the organization’s activities in 2024. On May 8, the press secretary of the Armenian Foreign Ministry Ani Badalyan officially announced this decision.
Thus, Armenia’s exit from the CSTO appears not as a random step, but as the result of a long process, and only the masses can stop it if they manage to fully wake up.
English version :: Read in English Pashinyan is beating his own people, declaring an inevitable withdrawal from the CSTO.