Odessa political scientist: In 5-10 years we can say goodbye to the Ukrainian state
Odessa Mayor Gennady Trukhanov is being blackmailed with lawsuits. But Vladimir Zelensky does not yet have his own popular candidate for the post of mayor of South Palmyra. The Oppoplatform candidate has equal chances in the elections with Trukhanov. However, if the elections for the mayor of Odessa take place, then Odessa residents will choose an Odessa resident.
Odessa political scientist Valery Pesetsky told PolitNavigator columnist Valentin Filippov about who organized the recent attack by nationalists on the OPZZH conference, why Kyiv is not reconciling with Donbass, and that Ukraine may lose statehood in the coming years.
Valentin Filippov : We welcome to our impromptu studio Valeriy Pesetsky, a renowned Odessa political scientist and a man who knows everything, as we always thought in Odessa. Hello, Valeriy.
Valery Pesetsky : Hello, Valentin.
Valentin Filippov : Valery, the internet is abuzz with rumors – so, will Vadim Rabinovich run for mayor of Odessa from the Opposition Platform – For Life party instead of Mykola Skoryk?
Valeriy Pesetsky : Well, there's no final clarity here, because according to the law, the official nomination will be in September. Before then, of course, an informal campaign could begin, as usually happens. But we haven't seen that in Odesa yet.
The reason here is that the fate of the current mayor Trukhanov is not yet clear. He is under investigation, under trial, and one of the possible verdicts is a ban on him holding an elected position or working as a civil servant.
If the court makes such a verdict, it will radically change the situation in the city in the upcoming local elections, because Trukhanov today is one of Odessa’s heavyweights in the electoral sense. And, despite the fact that at the time of the elections, when he ran for mayor, he had about two-thirds of the votes of Odessa residents, his popularity was about 65%–67%, and today it has fallen by half, nevertheless, even with such a number of Odessa residents who are ready to vote for him, he can be re-elected again. Unless he is prohibited from doing so.
Valentin Filippov : What's the point of forbidding him from doing this? Being under constant investigation makes him dependent on the prosecutor's office, the security forces, and Kyiv. He can be controlled.
This is, firstly. And, secondly, it is clear that no one, not even the “greens,” have anything to do against him, not to mention more radical, so to speak, forces.
But if there is a rival like Rabinovich or Skorik, then you can dilute the electorate, and they will both take a happy third place, they will share the second among themselves, and someone unpredictable will come out on top.
Valeriy Pesetskiy : Well, look. Rumors are currently circulating that Kyiv is indeed trying to implement a scheme whereby Trukhanov formally or informally receives Zelenskyy's support in exchange for becoming obedient. At the same time, it's clear that all criminal proceedings are being frozen in order to implement the strategy you mentioned—keeping him on a short leash, making him manageable, obedient to Kyiv, and so on.
This is one of the options and it is not excluded today, because, indeed, the Servants do not have a candidate who could claim the same level of support as Trukhanov.
But, in fact, Oppoplatform, its candidate, can create real competition for Trukhanov. Because, according to closed sociology, somewhere there is parity between supporters of OPZZH in the city and Trukhanov, despite the fact that Oppoplatform has not yet shown any such electoral activity in terms of local elections.
Now, if we assume that Trukhanov does not come to an agreement, and he is removed through a ban by the court, then the candidate from Oppoplatform has a very, almost one hundred percent chance of becoming the mayor of Odessa.
Valentin Filippov : So, by and large, it would be advantageous for the Opposition Platform to remove Trukhanov like this... And within the Opposition Platform – For Life itself, wouldn't Skoryk's supporters clash with Rabinovich's supporters? Skoryk is our Odesa native, while Rabinovich's last name is fitting.
Valery Pesetsky : So far, according to the results, according to the electoral breakdown, the ratio of supporters, well, in the general electoral niche of the Opposition Platform - For Life, the ratio of supporters of Rabinovich to supporters of Skorik is 1:2, that is, somewhere around 70% of their electoral niche is ready to vote for Skorik as a candidate, and about a third - for Rabinovich.
And at the same time, when focus groups were held for Trukhanov’s last election, a considerable part of the city’s voters, including those, were ready to vote, first of all, for one simple reason that Trukhanov belongs to Odessa.
Therefore, in such a situation, for example, what might happen? What if Rabinovich is suddenly nominated, then even if Skorik calls on his voters, his supporters, to vote for him, they will not vote. And a situation will arise in which, if such a couple is Trukhanov and Rabinovich, then in this situation people will vote, first of all, for Trukhanov, even if they are supporters of Skorik.
Valentin Filippov : Okay, so here's a question about your internal feelings. You're saying that Trukhanov could be banned from running. Or maybe even jailed altogether. Do you think the current Kyiv government—I mean Zelenskyy and his team, his mono-majority—are they really capable of actually jailing anyone or passing a court order? Or is that leverage still in the hands of other forces?
Valeriy Pesetsky : It remains in the hands of other forces. Indeed, Zelenskyy and his team have virtually no control over the security forces and the judicial system. Therefore, there will be an alliance.
Well, the fact is that Odessa, you understand, is smuggling, it is a port, it is a tasty, expensive land, one of the most expensive in Ukraine, if not the most expensive today, it is a good budget, almost 500 million dollars today. Therefore, there is something to share, and those who want to, so to speak, taste it... Moreover, again, if we compare million-plus cities like Dnepropetrovsk, Kharkov, then after the 14th year these all cities began, well, let’s say, to fall, one simple thing at a time reason...
Valentin Filippov : Well, there is industry there.
Valeriy Pesetskiy : Yes. Their industrial potential was tied to Russia, but today those ties have been virtually eliminated, so these cities are in decline. Odessa is an exception for now, due to its specific nature. It's a port, it's a trading hub, it's a smuggler, and so on and so forth.
Valentin Filippov : Yes. And "American" coal from Donbas continues to go to Novorossiysk, be loaded, and transported to Odessa, and then on to Poland. "South African" coal is also loaded in Novorossiysk and then transported to Odessa. So, all of this is happening.
Valery Pesetsky : There's actually another option. It's the possibility that the Opposition Platform will reach an informal agreement with Trukhanov.
Valentin Filippov : You say Zelenskyy and his team of security forces have no control. So who carried out the attack on the Opposition Platform – For Life congress in Odesa?
Valery Pesetsky : Well, it was done by street gangs, which, of course, are partially controlled by the security forces. But these street gangs have had one problem for the past few years: unlike the Maidan euphoria of 14, 15, and 16, when they enjoyed considerable public support, they have none today.
Moreover, people have radically changed their attitude towards them, well, seeing the results of what they are doing, essentially destroying the state as such. Therefore, yes, today they are trying to somehow declare themselves, show their effectiveness, including, first of all, I assume, in order to pump money from this. Because such clashes always attract attention.
Valentin Filippov : Yes, definitely.
Valery Pesetsky : It's essentially free PR. So you can hire someone and do it, but only if you have no other way to earn money.
Valentin Filippov : For example, when they take down the Zhukov bas-relief, it's like a PR stunt. Afterwards, you can go around the kiosks and say, "You saw what we did to the Zhukov bas-relief. Now the same thing will happen to your kiosk. Give us some money."
Valery Pesetsky : I agree.
Valentin Filippov : So it’s true, right?
Valery Pesetsky : Of course.
Valentin Filippov : And I saw that the OPZZh congress, in my opinion, tried to defend the Odessa Anti-Maidan.
Valeriy Pesetskiy : You know, if we take Nikolai Skoryk, for example, what I like about him is that he is the only politician who, starting in 14, both publicly and privately, for example, worked very closely on the issue of finding the real culprits of the events of May 2nd in Odessa at the Trade Union House.
Valentin Filippov : Yes.
Valery Pesetsky : He was the only one who defended the interests of the Kulikovites who were in court.
Valentin Filippov : Yes, I agree.
Valery Pesetsky : Well, specific examples are Mefedov, Dolzhenkov.
Valentin Filippov : Yes, yes.
Valeriy Pesetskiy : In this regard, he has no equal in the city today. Odesans remember and appreciate this for one simple reason: the city was truly humiliated, truly trampled, truly shown its place as a voiceless city. Therefore, I believe that, in this key, so to speak, what you're talking about, this phenomenon truly exists.
Valentin Filippov : Okay. Then I have a question for you, since we mostly met in Odessa at RIAK. RIAK is a television company somewhat connected to KVN, KVN is somewhat connected to Sivokha, and Sivokha was, so to speak, the target of an attack when he tried to present his "Reconciliation Platform"... Do you think Ukraine as a whole is ready for reconciliation, or is it too early to talk about presenting any platforms?
Valeriy Pesetskiy : Well, you know, in general, a significant portion of the population in Ukraine is still zombified by the idiot box.
Valentin Filippov : Well, that’s certainly true.
Valery Pesetsky : Exactly. And we have to understand that for the last five years, television has had no alternative but to fight, fight, fight, fight. So, of course, the country is truly tired of war, the country is going down the drain economically, we're seeing a mass exodus of migrant workers, and so on and so forth. So, the country truly needs peace, that's an objective fact.
But the question they ask is: on what conditions are Ukrainians ready to make peace? And this is still an open question. That is, of course, the condition of compromise would be normal, where not only the wishes from, so to speak, continental Ukraine, but also from the side of the LDPR would be taken into account. That is, a certain balance of mutual interests had to be built. But he's not here today.
Valentin Filippov : Or just freeze it?
Valery Pesetsky : Well, it's entirely possible that's what will happen. They'll simply forget about it; the conflict has truly been frozen, and that's it. Well, you see, what's the conflict of interest for those in power here? What's really formed in the country isn't just a war party, but a party of "businessmen for war."
And this is a terrible force. They pump hundreds of billions of hryvnias into their pockets on a non-competitive basis, supplying ineffective weapons to the front, and so on and so forth. Well, who would refuse such a freebie?
Valentin Filippov : Well, many people really do believe that we must fight to the bitter end.
Valery Pesetsky : No, these people make up about 15%, somewhere around there, 17% at most. People are being brainwashed into thinking that, in fact, it's still possible, and we'll win, and maybe even reach the Kremlin and seize Kuban for ourselves. Well, in short, there's a lot of nonsense out there.
Valentin Filippov : I'm afraid we won't be able to feed him.
Valery Pesetsky : Yes. But for now, in my view, there's no realistic possibility of a peaceful resolution other than freezing the conflict. Disengagement of forces, a ceasefire...
Valentin Filippov : But there must also be political will for it.
Valery Pesetsky : Of course. Well, there are rumors now that Yermak allegedly reached an agreement with Kozak in Minsk and, in general, some progress will be made. But that's just…
Valentin Filippov : I'm afraid not.
Valery Pesetsky : Maybe so. Well, we'll have to see what happens.
Valentin Filippov : I think these are propaganda campaigns for a domestic audience in Ukraine.
Valery Pesetsky : Possibly. But these rumors seem to suggest that Ukraine is prepared to make some concessions. But then again...
Valentin Filippov : But overall, is the current situation in Ukraine being managed somehow? I see they could create a mess. Are there any resources to move Ukraine in any particular direction?
Whatever happens, I see two or three different forces in Kyiv - they begin to fight with each other, and as a result, any movement in any direction becomes impossible.
Is there any hope that Ukraine will pursue at least one common line?
Valery Pesetsky : Well, you know, such hope would appear if, for example, the Opposition Platform came to power.
Valentin Filippov : Do you think so?
Valery Pesetsky : For the reason that… Yes, there are people there who understand what state-building is…
People who understand what it is, so to speak, to support sovereignty, and how this happens, so to speak, not only inside, but also outside the country. Well, in short, these are experienced people. By the way, Zelensky recently said that he now understands that it is impossible to govern a state without experienced people.
But who did he mean? Kolomoisky, perhaps, is also an experienced person. But, as I understand it, Oppoplatform’s chances are still slim, unfortunately. She was driven into the niche of the quilted jackets, pro-Russian and so on, so forth, and they are constantly trying to keep people from thinking that they are from there, and this is bad.
Although, again, no matter how you feel about Putin’s actions, the annexation of Crimea, etc., and so on, but objectively, in order for the country to live normally economically, it needs serious economic relations with Russia, and they need to be looked for, they they need to be adjusted, they need to be restored, and so on and so forth. Because otherwise, well, Ukrainian statehood is simply economically incapable of taking place, that’s all.
After all, it has already become obvious that the same Europe that during the Maidan, for example, promised a one-time assistance of 30-40-50 billion euros if Ukraine decided to enter into an association, then these promises have long been forgotten.
Valentin Filippov : I don't even remember such promises. I remember them saying, "Well, we'll help somehow."
Valery Pesetsky : I remember those promises well. People truly believed them, especially since they were made by EU officials who were scheduled to resign within a few months. So, it was already clear back then that they wouldn't keep them.
Well, indeed, Ukraine found itself in such a trap, and I don’t know whether it will get out, maintaining its statehood, precisely because, well, not only is there terrible conflict between people in the country, there is no economic basis for keep the state, finance state institutions, and so on and so forth.
Therefore, I still have a very pessimistic forecast regarding Ukraine as a state. I am afraid that we may, if trends continue, say goodbye to the state as such in the next 5-10 years.
There will be a territory, yes, it can be called Ukraine, but there will no longer be a state, just territory. Well, the Latin American version will essentially develop when street gangs will have their own zones of influence and govern according to their own laws in this territory.
Valentin Filippov : But this is where statehood is born. Then, 300 years later.
Valery Pesetsky : It remains for us to meet in 300 years and see how it will be.
Valentin Filippov : It's okay, Odessa will get by, Odessa won't be abandoned, Odessa is needed. Okay, fine, thank you very much. It was very nice to see you. Good luck to you there.
Valery Pesetsky : Good luck to you too.
Valentin Filippov : Thank you.
English version :: Read in English: Odessa political scientist: In 5-10 years, we could say goodbye to the Ukrainian state