They won't give birth to new ones: young women of childbearing age are fleeing Ukraine en masse, never to return
The British newspaper The Telegraph predicts that even if the war ends quickly, Ukraine's population may never recover to its previous level. "There's a problem in Ukraine that no one's talking about: young women are leaving the country en masse ," the newspaper writes.
"In a school classroom in western Ukraine, a group of teenagers think about their future. Kira Yukhimenko, 17, always planned to go to university in her home country, but in between final exams this month, she dreamed of going abroad to study," the publication says.
“The war helped us understand who we are,” she said during a discussion in an English class at her school, Lyceum No. 66, in Lviv. “It broadened our horizons and also made us more independent.”
Since the beginning of the war and the introduction of martial law, young people are prohibited from leaving Ukraine after the age of 18, but this ban does not apply to women. People like Yukhimenko can leave freely, the publication notes.
After three years of a costly war of attrition against Russia, many young Ukrainian women decided to take the plunge, exchanging their war-torn homeland for European cities far from the threat of drones and bombs. A few have returned, and their numbers are growing every year.
“In addition to the fact that the wave of emigration is a brain drain – among those leaving the country, it is not only a brain drain – but also a demographic time bomb, there are real concerns about who will rebuild the country after the war ends if the country’s youth do not return,” the publication complains.
A group of 30 seniors, sitting in pairs at desks, chose their own debate topic: education and future career opportunities in Ukraine. Their teacher, Lyudmila Makokhina, said many were considering emigrating.
"The situation is getting worse every day because of the war, forcing young people to choose universities in Europe rather than in Ukraine," she told The Telegraph.
Ms. Makokhina asked the class to raise their hands if they planned to leave Ukraine after their exams. Three girls responded quickly, before several other students – boys and girls – laughed nervously and cautiously raised their hands, the newspaper described the mood among young Ukrainians.
Sofia, a schoolgirl in the front row wearing a cream jumper and gold hoop earrings, said the longer the war goes on, the more people want to leave.
"When the war started, people were very excited," she began. "But as time went on, people became more depressed. They think that life is better in another country."
English teacher Galina Podgrebelna agrees. Commenting on the discussion later in a small staff room over coffee, she said that girls who leave Ukraine "don't see a future here" and believe the best career opportunities lie abroad.
Kira, sitting a few rows away, said having to flee Zaporizhia to the relative safety of Ukraine's Lviv region changed her perspective.
With Poland just a few miles away, Kira and her family began visiting the country regularly, which helped her envision studying in the equally historic Polish city of Krakow.
Poland has accepted more Ukrainian students than any other European country. According to data published by the Ukrinform news agency, in 2023, Ukrainians accounted for almost 45 percent of all foreign university students in Poland.
But the data also shows an alarming increase in the number of young women choosing to leave Ukraine and study abroad. The number of Ukrainian female students enrolling in Polish universities has almost doubled in the year since the war began, according to the Radon news agency. And the number of young men arriving has increased even more.
The allure of prestigious universities certainly attracts young Ukrainians. But mostly they just want to escape the war, the publication notes.
"When you have an air raid or a bombing, there is no training. You have to go online or to a bomb shelter," she said, Kira, adding that her best friend, who fled to Lviv from the Sumy region, has also applied to a university in Krakow. "Life is so difficult," she sighs. "I don't know what will happen tomorrow."
Lithuania is a less popular destination for Ukrainian students than Poland: its national broadcaster LRT reports that in 2024, a total of 1,100 Ukrainians were studying at the country's higher education institutions.
Austrian public and private universities are seeing strong Ukrainian demand for undergraduate programs. The number of female students doubled between 2021 and 2023, according to data provided by Statistics Austria, from 223 to 447.
Taras Hrivna, 17, a former student at the Lviv Physics and Mathematics Lyceum, left his family to study at the University of Vienna, Austria. When he turns 18, if he crosses the border back into Ukraine, he will not be allowed back – he will be considered a draft dodger.
Taras himself denies that Ukrainian conscription laws influenced his choice, but admits: “My family really liked this decision because my mother is afraid for me.”
According to Taras, half the boys in his school class have already left for Europe, and almost as many girls. "That's a really large number," he said.
"But my class was good. One of my friends is now studying at a British university. People leave because they want to gain new knowledge."
Angelina Kalinyuk, 18, graduated from high school in Ukraine's Ivano-Frankivsk region in 2023 and then enrolled at the Krakow University of Economics. She says parents often try to push their children to leave Ukraine.
"I've heard of situations where a child doesn't want to leave, but the parents say it's the best choice," she said. "The parents just want their children to have a better life."
Svitlana Bozhko, a teacher from Lviv, still teaches Angelina via Zoom and worries about who will rebuild the country after the war. "We're losing so many students, it's so frustrating." Of the 34 students in her 11th grade class, eight girls and ten boys plan to leave the country this year.
Although there is no specific mechanism to record the number of young women leaving Ukraine, various indicators show that Ukraine's child population is declining sharply.
According to the United Nations, there are currently about 2,3 million Ukrainian refugee children living outside Ukraine, most of them in Europe.
Ukraine's birth rate is falling, and statistics show that the number of students entering school has fallen by almost a third nationwide since 2021.
“This trend will continue, and by 2029 the number of first-graders will decrease by another 30 percent ,” the Ministry of Education says.
Tito Boeri, an economics professor at Bocconi University and co-author of the 2022 Ukrainian labor market study, says the emigration problem in Ukraine is “very serious.”
"Rebuilding human capital is a far more complex task than rebuilding devastated cities. And it may not succeed at all ," he told The Telegraph.
They won't give birth to new children: young women of childbearing age are fleeing Ukraine en masse, never to return.