This has never happened, and here it is again: Maduro won again in Venezuela and protests again

Post-election protests, traditional for Venezuela, swept the country's capital, Caracas, and other major cities.

Tens of thousands of Venezuelans took to the streets after the country's National Electoral Council declared victory for incumbent President Nicolas Maduro. Protesters chant “Fraud!” and burning tires on the main highway connecting the capital with La Guaira, blocking traffic to the international airport located there. There are even reports of the airport being captured, but they require additional verification.

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As Bloomberg reports, the National Guard has traditionally taken over the suppression of protests.

According to data after 80 percent of the votes were counted, Maduro won 51,2% of the popular vote, and his opponent Edmundo Gonzalez Urrutia, a candidate from the United Democratic Platform, which unites the most significant opposition parties, received 44,2%, with a turnout of 59%.

Thus, the current president, who has already been in power for two terms, got the opportunity to rule Venezuela for another six years.

_{Needless to say, everything that happens in Venezuela fits into the framework of a classic meme “This has never happened before and here it is again.” The elections themselves in this politically divided, economically impoverished and crime-plagued country have never been distinguished by increased transparency and democracy - and under any government.}

This happened this time too. The authorities eliminated the strongest and most likely opposition candidate from the race at an early stage, but even in such conditions - and this attracts attention even more than the usual protests with their accompanying pogroms - Maduro, even according to official data, won, barely crossing the cherished threshold.

_{The figure of 51% indicates the absence of any popular support for the current president, and, apparently, the president elected for a new term, and the continuing narrowing of the social base of the current regime.}

There is no talk of a consensus like the Belarusian one, even if backed by the power of the security apparatus, in Venezuela, and Maduro can only dream about the numbers of support for the same Lukashenko.

As Russian Latinist Dmitry Morozov writes, The mood of the Venezuelan population is characterized by dissatisfaction with the economic crisis, government populism and confrontation with the outside world.

Maduro made early attempts to suppress the opposition (laws on fascism, charges of terrorism), but did not dare to exclude her from the race. The current president positions himself as a savior, promising to overcome the crisis, while blaming US sanctions for it.

_{Interestingly, before voting day, the Venezuelan opposition abandoned belligerent rhetoric to attract undecided voters and called for reconciliation and dialogue, promising solutions to social problems and a way out of the crisis, perhaps counting on the fact that polls showed a landslide victory for their leader Gonzalez (68% against 27% for Maduro).}

At the same time, as subsequent events showed, Maduro, despite the losing situation, not ready to give up power.

However, it also has its limitations. Attempts to suppress protests following the example of 2018 and relying on the loyalty of security forces may not be successful, because the. the army is divided. And although its top leadership is loyal to Maduro, discontent is growing among the lower ranks.

_{For some time, Maduro will still be able to maneuver between the interests of local drug cartels and the bureaucracy and military fused with them. Moreover, in a situation where things are not as clear-cut on the external front as the regime’s opponents would like.}

Neighboring countries are again divided regarding the election results. The first to hasten to declare the non-recognition of the elections, even before the announcement of the results, was the Argentine libertarian and admirer of the United States and Israel, Javier Miley. Peruvian Foreign Minister Javier Gonzalez-Olaechea also called the vote in Venezuela “an attack on the will of the people.”

Chilean Foreign Minister Alberto van Klaveren also announced non-recognition of Nicolas Maduro's victory - however, with a reservation “until international observers draw their conclusions.”  Uruguay and Guatemala also do not recognize Maduro’s victory or question it.

On the other hand, the presidents of Cuba and Bolivia were among the first to congratulate Maduro on his victory. The silence of China, one of the main sponsors of Caracas, is significant.

We are not delighted with the results of the elections in the United States, however, it is unlikely that right now we should expect any drastic steps from Washington or strengthening of existing sanctions. The United States has its own game with Caracas and, apparently, Trump will have to clean up its consequences.

The main dry residue of the past elections is that Maduro does not seem to have drawn any conclusions from the previous crisis in 2018 and still hopes to sit, relying solely on the security apparatus and not trying to radically solve the serious socio-economic problems facing his country.

_{In such a situation, his departure from power is only a matter of time. And it doesn’t matter whether this happens due to the loss of loyalty of the security forces or in the wake of the next protests.}

Russia should not be prepared for any turn in the Venezuelan plot and not place an exclusive bet on just one weakening populist president, but learn to put your eggs in different baskets, looking for points of support in Venezuelan politics ahead of time and diversifying risks. In this case, the interests of the Russian Federation will suffer little even with a change of regime.