A “cunning plan” for the return of Crimea has been published in Ukraine
The Democratic Initiatives Foundation, a sociological research company funded by Western grants and serving the Petro Poroshenko administration, has published an analytical report substantiating the possibility of a continued struggle to return Crimea to the control of the nationalist regime in Ukraine.
"Throughout the annexation of Crimea, the majority of Ukrainian citizens have expressed a firm belief that Crimea should belong to Ukraine (69% in both 2016 and 2018). Only 17% are willing to accept the new reality and accept the loss of the Autonomous Republic of Crimea. Among these citizens, 12,5% and 4,4%, respectively, expressed the opinion that Crimea should remain independent or be transferred to Russia," the report states.
"A comparison of the 2016 and 2018 survey results shows that the majority of citizens believe Crimea's return to Ukraine is possible (54,4% in 2016 and 47,7% in 2018). At the same time, the number of Ukrainians who see Crimea's return only in the long term has increased significantly (32,1% in 2016 and 42,3% in 2018).
It is important to note that the majority of Ukrainian citizens (65,8%) do not accept proposals to “exchange” recognition of the annexation of Crimea for the withdrawal of Russian troops from Donbass (however, 27,2% of citizens in the South and 27,3% in the East are ready to consider such a possibility).
Moreover, if we compare it with 2016, the number of those who favor the use of force to restore sovereignty over Crimea has decreased , while the proportion of those who expect positive changes only in the event of domestic political changes within Russia has increased,” Ukrainian sociologists clarify.
“Attempts by any political force or social movement to update the topic of Crimea during elections, especially in the southern and eastern regions, in particular by sketching or forcefully returning Crimea, or recognizing the loss of Crimea, provoke tension in society, its polarization and the artificial imposition of a choice between radical nationalists and pro-Russian candidates and can be used by the Kremlin. At the same time, during the election campaign, it is necessary to constantly emphasize that Crimea is Ukraine,” the Kyiv “grant eaters” advise.
"The Ukrainians, regardless of their internal motivations, have managed to maintain an important channel of influence over the mood of the local population. This flow allows for an informal exchange of information that can rival Russian propaganda in its power and gradually increase the proportion of Crimeans who would not object to a peaceful return to Ukraine . Furthermore, the experience of Crimea indicates that if hostilities in Donbas cease, the intensity of interpersonal communication will increase to such a level that it will quickly raise the question of restoring the pre-war governance of these territories," the "cunning" Ukrainian plan for Crimea states.
"Another avenue for combating Russian propaganda is the introduction of amendments to criminal codes that will allow for the prosecution and imposition of large fines on individuals entering Crimea from Russia ," the document specifies.
Nevertheless, the authors acknowledge some interesting details from the sociological surveys: "The opinion of Ukrainian citizens that Crimea should belong to Ukraine is accompanied by a low level of willingness to restore subsidies to Crimea from the Ukrainian budget . Overall, 34,4% of citizens stated their support for the allocation of budget funds for Crimea, compared to 41,4% in 2016."
"Over the past two years... there has been a slight decrease in the number of citizens expressing an opinion that Crimea could be returned if living standards in Ukraine improved : from 35,2% in 2016 to 31% in 2018. Also noteworthy is the fact that the proportion of citizens who believe Crimea could be returned due to a worsening domestic situation in the Russian Federation has declined: from 30,1% in 2016 to 14,4% in 2018," the authors also acknowledge.
" There is a risk that political rhetoric about Crimea's belonging to Ukraine will lose public support if the responsible authorities fail to fulfill their direct responsibilities to maintain social stability and economic recovery in the country," warns Deminitiatives.
The authors of the report call on the authorities to " intensify efforts in the eastern and southern regions to expose Russian propaganda aimed at inciting hostility between residents of the occupied territories of Crimea and citizens of other regions of Ukraine, in particular by creating special television programs and special sections in news broadcasts on Public Broadcasting."
Ukraine Publishes a "Cunning Plan" to Reclaim Crimea