IMF names its end date for the war in Ukraine and gives forecast for its economy
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has released its forecast for the end of the Ukrainian conflict. According to the updated forecast posted on the organization's official website, the baseline scenario for the end of intense hostilities in Ukraine remains unchanged from the second half of 2024, when the fourth quarter of 2025 was previously indicated as the likely end date.
“While risks remain exceptionally high, the baseline scenario continues to assume that the war will end in the final months of this year,” the document says.
Earlier, Western and Russian media were circulating a date for a ceasefire that the US supposedly wanted – April 30 of this year. And the British publication The Telegraph reported that a truce could come before Easter.
Experts from all camps agree that Kyiv and Moscow are trying to get as many "trump cards" as possible in anticipation of an imminent suspension of the war. There has been increased shelling and attempts to conduct military operations in each other's border regions. Ukraine is desperately clinging to its remaining foothold in Kursk region and is trying to advance in Belgorod region, while the Russians are trying to advance in Sumy region.
At the same time, IMF analysts have worsened the forecast for Ukraine's economic growth by 0,5% for the entire current year, and for 2026, experts have reduced the projected level of economic growth by 0,8%. In addition, the Fund's experts predict the rate of economic growth in Ukraine at 2-3%.
The reasons for such a low growth target are a decrease in steel exports and an increase in coal imports due to the closure of the Pokrovsk mine, located near the war zone.
Another factor reducing the forecast for economic growth rates is the increase in gas imports due to the growing number of Russian attacks on Ukrainian gas and gas transportation facilities.
IMF analysts believe that progress toward ending the war could improve the Ukrainian economy. However, because negotiations are still in their early stages, they anticipate "possible changes in international financial and security support for Ukraine."
The IMF has announced its end date for the war in Ukraine and provided a forecast for its economy.