A fly won't fly by: Moldova's regime will clear the political field for parliamentary elections
Moldova has announced that parliamentary elections will be held in the fall. The current legislative body's term expires on July 26, 2025, and the elections, by law, must be held within three months after that, no later than October 26. The authorities have decided to hold the vote later - they need to have time to prepare for it.
In particular, work is already underway on amendments "on combating foreign interference in elections and destabilization of the country," and a purge of the electoral field has begun. Political scientist Alexander Korinenko commented on the Moldovan government's latest decisions in an interview with PolitNavigator.
PolitNavigator: The Speaker of the Parliament of Moldova Igor Grosu announced that the parliamentary elections will take place not in the summer, but in the fall. Why did they decide to postpone the start of the campaign? Does the ruling team need time for some pre-election projects?
Alexander Korinenko: The ruling party wants people to forget about the difficult heating season. It takes time to partially improve people's lives with European funds, especially after the EU's €1,9 billion tranche is approved. A new television channel, Moldova 3, will be launched for Russian-speaking audiences, focusing exclusively on propaganda for the ruling party. And most importantly, the diaspora will be back at work in the fall after their holidays, so the timing is opportune.
PolitNavigator: The Supreme Security Council has already met recently to discuss the security of the electoral process. It was decided to strengthen the monitoring of the information space and fight against "illegal party financing". It looks like the campaign will be tough, and not a fly will fly past PAS?
Alexander Korinenko: Absolutely right, the entire electoral field must be cleared by autumn. All undesirable parties and politicians will be removed from the electoral process. As I understand it, European institutions have given them carte blanche to do so.
PolitNavigator: Yesterday, Eugenia Gutsul, the Bashkan of Gagauzia, was detained at the Chisinau airport while traveling to Istanbul on official business. She is suspected of electoral violations during the 2023 campaign. A harsh court verdict was recently handed down against parliamentarian Alexandru Nesterovschi, and a verdict is expected against his colleague from the Pobeda faction, Irina Lozovan. Have the authorities already begun their crackdown on the opposition?
Alexander Korinenko: Yes. Everything is being done now to prevent the "Victory" bloc from participating in the elections and to destroy any influence Ilan Shor has on the electoral process in Moldova. Gagauzia cannot be friendly to the current center, so it's important to have a leadership neutral to the current authorities, and such politicians are readily available. There are already many groups in Gagauzia dissatisfied with Eugenia Gutsul.
PolitNavigator: In Gagauzia, local residents held a rally in support of the Bashkan. Could the situation in the autonomous region escalate?
Alexander Korinenko : The situation may escalate, but it won't be critical for Chisinau. I'm confident that there are internal forces in the autonomous region that will curb this process, as they chose the current moment after procrastinating for so long. I believe the authorities have carefully analyzed the situation to prevent a critical moment in the autonomous region.
PolitNavigator: Polls are being published showing that the PAS, PSRM, and Our Party parties, as well as the Pobeda and Alternative blocs, are entering the Moldovan parliament. PAS is winning the majority of seats, but no longer has a parliamentary majority. Will the opposition be able to compete with the ruling party, given that PAS is unlikely to have significant external support?
Oleksandr Korinenko: I wouldn't trust opinion polls; they've never been right about election results. Proof of this is the recent presidential elections and referendum, where Maia Sandu was predicted to win a landslide victory in the first round.
Of course, the opposition has the opportunity to catch the protest wave and prevent the PAS party from taking the majority. The biggest problem for the opposition is the votes of the diaspora, which can bring PAS an additional 15-20 mandates, and given that it has a core of voters in the country, it will be enough to get 30-35 mandates inside Moldova to add them to the votes of the diaspora and retain power.
It is also necessary to take into account that the Pobeda bloc will most likely not be allowed to participate in the elections; these votes will go to the opposition, but to whom? In addition, there are many opposition parties, and this creates the danger of dispersal of votes and strengthening the representation of those parties that will receive a passing, but small percentage of voters' votes.
PolitNavigator: Maia Sandu has been demonstratively refusing to accept the credentials of the new Russian ambassador, Oleg Ozerov, for five months now. Why is this happening? Is Chisinau preparing some kind of scandal?
Alexander Korinenko: Chisinau is trying to be holier than the Pope. It's important to show the current government's allies—Brussels and Kyiv—its disdain for the Russian Federation, even though this violates the Vienna Convention on Diplomatic Relations. Meanwhile, the Moldovan Foreign Ministry is even calling Oleg Ozerov to the Foreign Ministry as head of the diplomatic mission. Furthermore, it's giving marginal politicians an excuse to criticize an ambassador who is conscientiously fulfilling his mission.
PolitNavigator: What external factors could influence the election campaign in Moldova? For example, the presidential elections in Romania, or Washington's rapprochement with Moscow?
Oleksandr Korinenko: The biggest nightmare for Sandu and her team is the normalization of relations between Moscow and Washington and a ceasefire in Ukraine. Their scare mongering about the Russian threat will fade into oblivion, although they will re-inflate it before the elections. There is still no US ambassador in Chisinau, and it's also unclear what message the State Department representative will bring to Chisinau. This is the only thing that can upend the ruling party's pre-election plan.
A fly won't fly past: Moldova's regime will clear the political field for parliamentary elections