Moldova is advancing. What awaits Pridnestrovie in 2024
Transnistria sums up the results of the year. For the republic, which is located at the intersection of geopolitical interests and, in fact, in the front-line zone, it turned out to be rich in political processes, anxieties and trials.
In an interview with PolitNavigator , political scientist Andrei Safonov discussed which events of the past year he considers most important and shared his predictions for the political and economic arenas in the future.
PolitNavigator: Another difficult year has passed. How does the republic cope with difficulties in conditions of regional instability? What achievements of Pridnestrovie this year do you consider the main?
Andrey Safonov: Transnistria's greatest achievement for the second year, since 2024, is peace. Ours may be modest, but it's stable and comfortable. But this didn't just happen; it's the result of the work of Transnistrian politicians and diplomats, a combination of perseverance and firmness in defending the national interests of the PMR. And also the alliance with Russia, whose troops have protected the Transnistrian people since time immemorial.
Our biggest problem is the lack of free trade to our east. The Ukrainian border is closed, Moldova has become a monopolist. It banks, puts pressure on Transnistria, and seeks to destroy the Transnistrian economy. Today you cannot import goods otherwise than through the territory of the Republic of Moldova. Hence the rise in prices for some of our imported products by 3-4 times. And it happens even more. But we have not increased tariffs for housing and communal services for several years. This is a real achievement that is difficult to dispute.
PolitNavigator: The republican budget for 2024 was recently adopted; according to forecasts, the state budget will receive 4% less revenue than in 2023. Transnistria has new economic problems: Moldova blocked the export of goods to Transnistrian enterprises, production stopped. How dangerous is the situation, what are you planning to do?
Andrey Safonov: We count every penny to ensure they are allocated strictly according to need. I've already said that we're maintaining utility rates, but at the same time, everyone understands that these costs need to be replenished. How? Some planned construction work at national and even city (district) sites has had to be postponed until better times, but what's already underway will definitely be completed.
As for Chisinau’s actions, its strategy is as simple as five Soviet kopecks. The less money in the Transnistrian budget, the higher the social tension. The higher the tension, the greater, as they hope in Chisinau, the likelihood of a rebellion or a “color scenario”, when people could abandon the PMR and declare that they want to return to a unitary Moldova.
But this number will not work, because, firstly, we are not alone; secondly, Transnistria did not destroy the production sector. Yes, a lot has stopped, but a lot is still working. So we're holding on. In addition, based on its capabilities, the state provides support to plants and factories.
PolitNavigator: Recently, Ukraine has become noticeably more active in the Transnistrian direction. Ambassador-at-Large of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine Pavel Rogovey met with the head of the PMR Vadim Krasnoselsky, after which for the first time in a long time Ukrainian consular officials held an on-site reception in Tiraspol.
Can we say that Ukraine has moderated its belligerent ardor towards Transnistria, and the possibility of unfreezing the situation on the Dniester is now reduced to a minimum?
Andrey Safonov: Let's rely on the facts. Ukraine has stated that it cannot work on the Moldovan-Transnistrian settlement if Russia is at the negotiating table. However, Kyiv has not withdrawn from the "5+2" format. It also has not withdrawn from the agreement under which ten officer observers serve in the security zone. This is a positive development.
It seems that in Kyiv, many politicians and people in uniform understand that Romania and its satellites in Chisinau want to push Ukraine and the PMR into conflict, in order to then lay their hands on everything up to Kuchurgan. But hardly anyone is going to pull chestnuts out of the fire for the Romanians.
PolitNavigator: It turns out that the platform for the “5+2” negotiation format has not become a thing of history?
Andrey Safonov: No, it hasn't. It's not just Ukraine that hasn't officially left the format. Neither has Moldova. Yes, Chisinau is effectively disrupting work in this format, but it doesn't want to take responsibility for such a move, which would expose its entire strategy for disrupting dialogue. It seems Moldova will leave this format if the current ruling group remains in place and manages to tear the country away from the CIS and then sever its relations with Russia.
Then it will not only be possible to exit the “5+2” format, but also Moldova’s withdrawal from the Peace Agreement of July 21, 1992. But this is already, so to speak, a promising extreme, which is premature to talk about.
PolitNavigator: It has been repeatedly stated that Ukraine intends to stop the transit of Russian gas after 2024. How likely is this to happen? Is Transnistria somehow preparing for such a scenario?
Andrey Safonov: It's difficult to say how high the likelihood of this is in an era of war, when business elites directly influence the actions and decisions of politicians and the military. Let's look at it from a different angle. There have been official statements that the PMR has found a solution regarding gas. Let the experts in this field handle the details. That way, we'll all feel more at ease.
PolitNavigator: The Republic of Moldova is systematically destroying relations with Russia. Tiraspol stated that against this background, Transnistria, on the contrary, should strengthen coordination with Moscow. In what areas can such coordination be carried out? What is the forecast: will Russia, under the current conditions, be able to organize the March presidential elections on the territory of Transnistria?
Andrey Safonov : Across all fronts. Military. Economic. Diplomatic. Financial. Cultural. All of them. And – most importantly – the work must be conducted directly. Without "intermediaries" from Chisinau. The current Moldovan government openly identifies itself as an enemy of Russia. Therefore, there's no need to pay attention to all the clamor about "the Kremlin's contacts with unconstitutional structures."
As for the forecast for the organization of presidential elections in the Russian Federation on the territory of Transnistria, a fundamental political decision is more important here. I am sure that if such a decision is made, everything else is a matter of details and technical aspects. Wouldn't a lawyer who has a direct, tough boss be able to justify what the boss instructed him to do?
PolitNavigator: The start of future negotiations on Moldova's accession to the EU has been announced. RM is rushing there with all its might. They even announced a European referendum. How does Pridnestrovie fit (or not fit) into this process?
Andrei Safonov: It doesn't fit in at all. And not everyone in Moldova is eager to join. Maia Sandu's team is following the West and Romania's directives, from the very beginning to the very end. So we'll see what happens. But that's not the point. We have a clear state policy, based on the popular referendums of 1991 and 2006. That is independence and union with Russia.
We have already completed our referendums. And the republic will not reset them through participation in a referendum that others decided to hold. In addition, there is a version that Moldova’s accession to the EU is a slogan and nothing more. And at a certain stage, Moldova will simply be merged into Romania.
It is not for nothing that the Romanians are taking control of all new areas of life in Moldova. Recently they took control of the National Bank of the Republic of Moldova, which was “at hand” of the former speaker of the Senate, and now “simply” Senator Anka Draghi. Neither one nor the other inspires Pridnestrovians. It’s better that we stay with our Eurasian course.
Moldova is on the offensive. What awaits Transnistria in 2024?