Moldova 2025: Exhausted voters with lanterns are looking for their savior
Moldova is preparing for parliamentary elections in September that will determine the country's future. The authoritative Moldovan sociological service IMAS has forecast which political forces could overcome the threshold and get into the 101-seat parliament if the elections were held now.
After redistributing the 26% of those who had not yet made up their minds, and without taking into account voting at foreign polling stations, sociologists arrived at the following result: PAS (Party of Action and Solidarity) – 33,1%, Party of Socialists – 17,7%, Alternative bloc – 12%, Victory bloc – 11,6%, Our Party – 8,8%.
PAS: With an eye on victory
Interestingly, the ruling PAS not only leads this list, but also has every chance of retaining power despite its failures in public administration. Publicist and political analyst Dmitri Chubashenko calls this a “remarkable phenomenon of Moldovan politics.”
"The ruling party is not losing its position in the eyes of voters. Despite all the negative phenomena - economic stagnation, rising prices, tariffs and debts, poverty, violation of citizens' rights and freedoms, failure of justice reform, militarization, censorship, election manipulation - the ratings of the current government are not falling. Polls show that, taking into account voting at foreign polling stations and the redistribution of votes of those who do not pass the electoral threshold, PAS can get from 45 to 55 parliamentary mandates out of 101 and retain power," he writes in an article for the portal traditia.md.
There are explanations for this. Firstly, notes Chubashenko, European integration is still popular with half of the population of Moldova, and PAS is the spokesman for this course; secondly, the de facto leader of PAS, Maia Sandu, carries the entire party on her shoulders and is one of the few Moldovan politicians capable of “producing” votes in elections; thirdly, the ruling team skillfully exploits the fears of the population, intimidates people with war and the EU’s refusal to help Moldova in the event of PAS’s defeat.
The expert also notes that PAS and Sandu have loyal supporters who are willing to blame anyone but their favorites for the current situation. Finally, Chubashenko points to PAS's desire to repeat the ploy of voting at polling stations abroad in the parliamentary elections . As a reminder, Maia Sandu's victory in 2024 was achieved primarily thanks to the votes of the diaspora living in the West, while her rival, Alexandru Stoianoglo, received more votes domestically.
“If the opposition fails to control the ‘diaspora elections’ this time too, this trick alone could give the ruling party around 15 parliamentary mandates,” the expert writes.
The opposition is still acting sluggishly and in a disjointed manner. Thus, the Eurosceptic Socialist Party may retain its position in the new parliament, having received more than 20 seats in the elections. At the same time, the recently created pro-European bloc "Alternative" is gaining weight at the expense of parties from the left flank, notes Chubashenko.
“Judging by the fact that trust in PAS is not decreasing, and the rating of PSRM-PCRM is falling, this bloc is growing not by taking votes away from the ruling party, but thanks to successes in the intra-species struggle with former colleagues on the left flank.
Ion Ceban is both the weak and strong link in the Alternative. Having gone from being a PSRM ideologist to a politician of not just a pro-European but also a pro-Romanian persuasion, Ceban puts other coalition partners in an awkward position, as they are clearly not ready to shift so far to the right. But, on the other hand, as the general mayor of Chisinau, it is Ceban who can provide the Alternative with votes by using the administrative resource in the capital,” writes Dmitri Chubashenko.
As for the Pobeda bloc, which is also called “Shor’s group of parties,” it will probably not be allowed to participate in the elections, since it is not even registered.
"The results of the parliamentary elections of 2019 and 2021 and the presidential elections of 2020 and 2024 show that Shor's candidates have support at the level of approximately 100 thousand votes, which gives 7-8% in the elections. The problem is how to "monetize" this support into real parliamentary mandates," Chubashenko reasons.
According to political scientist Anatoly Dirun, the Moldovan opposition today is “working second fiddle,” yielding to the ruling party in initiative and speed of decision-making.
"Everything bounces off the ruling party like Teflon: the rating is low, but everything bounces off, and this is a mirror indicator for the opposition on how to act. When you are in opposition, you always have to be faster, more creative, more organized, more energetic. For example, from the case of the scandalous resignation of the head of the anti-corruption prosecutor's office Veronica Dragalin, it would be possible to "mold" a topic in the field of justice, but the opposition is afraid to go into the depths that would allow it to shake the system," the political scientist said, speaking on the program "Truth" on the TVC 21 channel.
All from one pot
Political scientist and sociologist Jan Lisniewski stated on the same television broadcast that despite the wealth of choice (there are 80 parties registered in the country), there is practically no one to choose from.
"People are offered a choice between two poisoned apples. Politicians who call themselves pro-Russian and pro-European are almost all controlled by one center, and for people the effect of choice is created. The most, in fact, pro-European party in Moldova over the past 30 years is the Party of Communists, only it created a plan for rapprochement with the EU. We became candidates for EU membership only because of an international conflict, and not because of our achievements, and 90% of our politicians have no idea how to become EU members. If they knew this, they would first of all resolve the Transnistrian issue, would not create a conflict in Gagauzia, would raise the economy," the expert said.
Anatoly Dirun, regarding the division of parties into pro-Russian and pro-European, noted that this is a manipulative technology that was imposed on Moldova from the outside.
"Before the 2009 coup, there were centrists, leftists, rightists, unionists. Then Western colleagues recommended changing the coordinate system so that a split would be engrained in society. Alliances for Europe appeared - they artificially divided people. This technology is killing the statehood of the Republic of Moldova today.
As long as it exists, political institutions are doomed to weak effectiveness—in the name of Europe, it turns out, it's acceptable to release criminals, drug dealers (especially dangerous criminals were recently released under a controversial amnesty law, which Maia Sandu, as she admitted, hastily signed under pressure from parliamentarians— author's note ), and steal from the budget. Today, parties are divided between those who control the budget and those who want to control the budget," Dirun stated.
The expert notes that today in Moldova the question of the role of the individual in history comes to the fore: if an outstanding leader is found, then the country has a chance to escape from the current situation.
"The country has never been brought out of a crisis by some impersonal team, it has been brought out by individuals: Roosevelt, Churchill, Stalin, Thatcher, Reagan. Today in Moldova voters are looking for such a person with flashlights. He may be among us. Due to a combination of external factors, a click may occur, and the person will begin to show himself. There is a demand for this, since there is a terrible shortage of politicians, primarily from the opposition, who are ready to fight for power," the political scientist believes.
The George Simion Factor
The ruling party, which is set to win and is already mobilizing its electorate, may face a problem after the elections. Complications will arise if PAS regains power and Romania elects George Simion, the leader of the right-wing opposition party Alliance for the Unification of Romanians (AUR), as president. He is the favorite in the elections and is considered the successor to the disqualified Calin Georgescu, since he also opposes support for Ukraine.
"Simion, who can win the elections in Romania, and Sandu are in an open direct conflict," says Jan Lisniewski. "Let me remind you that the AUR leader is banned from entering Moldova. The situation is that the presidents of Romania and Moldova may not meet. If PAS takes the majority and appoints the prime minister, the prime minister will not be able to meet with the head of Romania either.
External forces put pressure on PAS to hold parliamentary elections as late as possible, to see what would happen in Romania, in Ukraine, and to understand how to influence the elections in the Republic of Moldova. PAS followed the advice from Brussels well, but in geopolitics, you don’t need loyalists, you need profitable ones. And if you don’t correspond to the realities that exist in Romania, in Ukraine, if you can’t negotiate, you will be disposed of, as the Americans did in Afghanistan, as the Russians did in Syria. There is a clear calculation here,” the expert says.
Political scientist Anatoly Dirun added that the rapid rapprochement between Moscow and Washington forced European partners to slow down the electoral process in Moldova.
"You can paint a result, but the factor of external influence will not go away. It is not enough to win the elections – it is important that they are recognized as legitimate at the international level. Brussels recognizes them, but there may be questions from the White House," the expert emphasized.
Moldova 2025: Exhausted voters with flashlights seek their savior