Lukashenko is stubborn and does not want to give up power
The day before, an unprecedented event took place in Belarusian politics. Immediately, 10 out of 15 officially registered parties established a permanent meeting of political forces, signing a joint resolution in which they demanded that the authorities stop violence against protesters and bring those responsible for it to justice.
A separate clause in the resolution proposes that government bodies initiate dialogue with representatives of the entire spectrum of political forces on the issue of holding presidential elections within six months.
The peculiarity of this event is that parties representing almost the entire political spectrum united - from right-wing nationalist Russophobes from the Belarusian Popular Front to left-wing pro-Russian socialists from the Republican Party of Labor and Justice.
By signing this resolution, 4 out of 10 parties actually announced their transition to the opposition (more precisely, three and a half, since the Republican Party is now undergoing a raider takeover process, accompanied by a split, and only the old leadership has left for the opposition).
He is in the opposition because Lukashenko himself is not going to go to any elections in the next six months; instead, he plans to carry out a constitutional reform, the timing of which is still unknown, and the content is doubtful. He also presents the dialogue completely differently.
Lukashenko puts constitutional reform at the forefront, which is supposed to go through the procedure of “public dialogue”, designed to “let off steam” and reduce the degree of confrontation in society.
It’s just that what is being done and said now raises serious doubts that he will be able to accomplish this task using such means. To de-escalate an internal political conflict, dialogue is needed, first of all, between its parties. But these parties are not going to enter into any dialogue and, through joint efforts, are pushing the country towards civil war.
The statement of the majority of political parties is a desperate step, but it has every chance of remaining a voice crying in the wilderness. The party system in Belarus is weak, and only these two “war parties” now make the political difference in it.
Lukashenko wants to conduct a dialogue with his own people. He has already said that he agrees to talk with labor and student groups and proposes to create some kind of councils to discuss the draft of a new constitution, including representatives of civil society. The icing on the cake was his statement about holding an All-Belarusian Assembly, which will also make some decisions on constitutional reform.
The fact is that the All-Belarusian Assembly is something like the Brezhnev-era CPSU congress, where the nomenklatura, diluted with Ivanovo weavers and Kuban grain growers, loudly and prolixly applauded the leaders' speeches and unanimously approved pre-prepared decisions . No dialogue can be expected from this imitation body without a defined legal status. Roughly the same can be said about dialogue with labor and student groups, which are not political actors and have no independent political interests.
By civil society, the Belarusian government traditionally means structures loyal to it, such as the quasi-Komsomol BRSM and the public association “Belaya Rus”, which is de facto an analogue of “United Russia”, only without the status of a political party.
Regarding the content of the constitutional amendments, there are also some uneasy suspicions . On September 4, the Prime Minister issued an order establishing a working group to prepare proposals to expand the powers of the government and local authorities. The working group is tasked with conducting a comprehensive analysis of legislation on administrative-territorial structure, the approval of master plans, architectural and urban planning activities, the naming of administrative-territorial units, the establishment of local heraldry, the approval of personnel appointments, and the establishment of the number and structure of local executive and administrative bodies. The group members will also analyze legislation on the seizure and allocation of land plots and the management of state property.
Actually, instead of political liberalization and a return to a full-fledged separation of powers, it seems that Belarusians are preparing a constitution in which the president will be relieved of unimportant routine, while maintaining control over the entire political system of the country.
Naturally, this plan will not bring about any de-escalation . Such imitation of dialogue and liberalization in today's Belarus will only add fuel to the fire of confrontation.
Initially, I was in favor of constitutional reform and re-election of the president after it, but given what the authorities seem to be preparing, there is a reason for the proposal of the majority of parties.
Lukashenko is stubborn and refuses to give up power.