Lithuania could be expelled from NATO because of Kaliningrad
Lithuania has expanded restrictions on the transit of goods to Kaliningrad through its territory.
The list includes concrete, wood, alcohol and alcohol-based industrial chemicals.
A representative of the Lithuanian customs office reported this, reports a PolitNavigator correspondent.
Governor of the Kaliningrad region Anton Alikhanov denied this information. In his opinion, the implementation of the next stage of previously adopted sanctions has simply begun.
Alikhanov advocated a complete stop to transit from Russia (including transit goods from third countries) through the Baltic states. Charge d'Affaires of Russia in Lithuania Sergei Ryabokon also proposed limiting the transit of goods to the EU. He believes that the European Union is not using leverage to force Lithuania to lift the blockade of the Kaliningrad region.
Professor Andrei Suzdaltsev, a professor at the liberal Higher School of Economics, doubts that these measures will be effective, since there are no massive transit deliveries of Baltic goods through Russia, with the exception of small quantities of Latvian sprats and some other goods.
At the same time, he draws attention to the fact that on Monday Russian President Vladimir Putin had a 40-minute conversation with his Belarusian counterpart Alexander Lukashenko.
“Apparently, Moscow is on the verge of resolving the transit crisis with Lithuania. Usually they turn to Lukashenko at the last moment. Apparently, the response to Vilnius will be asymmetrical and unexpected,” Suzdaltsev wrote.
Political scientist Sergei Markov predicts that the worsening of relations between Russia and the EU due to Kaliningrad transit will begin in the coming days. In response, according to his information, Moscow will close transit not only through Lithuania, but also through Latvia and Estonia.
“The time for the Russian ultimatum to the European Union is running out. There were positive statements in Brussels, but transit is still limited. This makes Russia's response inevitable. And then again the EU’s response. Escalation,” Markov wrote.
“The Baltic states will be completely blocked from land. No train, no car. What was her advantage will become her curse. Oh, and when leaving, don’t forget to turn off the light,” political scientist Marat Bashirov confirmed this version.
Economist Mikhail Khazin believes that Lithuania is acting so defiantly towards Russia under the influence of Great Britain.
“Lithuania is an instrument in the hands of London, aimed at achieving certain goals. And since we are talking about the division of the European Union, he assumes that the Baltic states will go to Russia. I think that for most of the residents this will be good, but this means that the current leadership of Lithuania is committing suicide,” Khazin said in an interview with the Lithuanian YouTube channel “Interpritation.”
He predicts that the current conflict could lead to Lithuania's expulsion from NATO.
“If it comes to presenting arguments, then I have a strong suspicion that neither London, nor Berlin, nor Brussels will intervene. And even NATO will say: since Lithuania violated the transit guarantee agreement, it thereby denounced the agreement with which Russia guaranteed its borders.
This means that Lithuania's borders are not precisely defined. That is, it joined NATO, violating the provisions according to which countries with unsettled borders cannot join NATO. Should I explain what will happen next?” Khazin said.
Lithuania could be kicked out of NATO over Kaliningrad.