Konstantin Sivkov: “The pressure on Russia will be increased, but not with the help of the Taliban”
Why is the US withdrawal from Afghanistan a military defeat for the Americans? Why did the citizens of Armenia vote for Pashinyan, who lost the war in Karabakh? How will the West use corrupt Russian officials for its own purposes?
Doctor of Military Sciences Konstantin Sivkov told the PolitNavigator correspondent about this and much more.
Profile: Konstantin Valentinovich Sivkov. Graduated from the Popov Naval Academy in 1976. Served in the navy. Graduated from the Admiral Kuznetsov Naval Academy. Graduated from the Academy of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation in 1992.
From 1995 to 2007 he served in the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces.
He retired with the rank of captain of the first rank. He is engaged in active social and expert activities, is a publicist, and acts as an expert in leading Russian media. Corresponding member of the Russian Academy of Missile and Artillery Sciences. Doctor of Military Sciences.
He is one of the founders and first vice-president of the independent, non-governmental and non-profit public scientific organization Academy of Geopolitical Problems.
PN: Konstantin Valentinovich, today many are in a stupor because negotiations were held at the official level in Moscow with representatives of the Taliban movement, which is officially recognized as a terrorist organization in Russia. Can we believe the promises that the Taliban made in our country?
KS: Today, the only real force that can replace the departing American troops and the administration associated with them in Afghanistan is the Taliban. Because all the other militias of local princes, beys, and other tribal leaders are disunited, lack a unified command center, and therefore cannot mount organized resistance to the Taliban.
The Taliban have the support of other states, in particular Pakistan. And maybe this is not even a bad thing, Russia has come into contact with the Taliban, maintains relations with them, it is well known that our representatives in Afghanistan during the presence of American troops there, moving around areas of the country, including those controlled by the Taliban, used their support. For Russia, the Taliban's rise to power will not be a serious threat.
While they could, of course, potentially become a threat in the future, at this stage, they don't. Moreover, the Taliban are in conflict with representatives of the Islamic State ( an organization banned in Russia – ed. ), and they have fought with them, so the Taliban's arrival, I repeat, isn't such a serious threat to Russia.
However, a number of experts believe that the withdrawal of US and NATO troops is a cunning move by the West to leave Russia alone with the problem of Afghanistan and the Taliban.
Nonsense! The Americans lost the war in Afghanistan cleanly, because the goals of this war were the occupation of the territory and the destruction of the Taliban, as a movement that opposed the Americans, on which they blamed for the events of September 11, 2001, as we remember. Now it turned out that the Taliban remained combat-ready, and, in the end, forced the Americans to leave Afghanistan. That is, they won a military victory. This is another American military defeat that puts an end to American ambitions to maintain world dominance.
During the period the Taliban were in power, there was no drug production at all. Because the Taliban are devout Muslims, and Islam prohibits the consumption and production of drugs. And when the Americans arrived, drug trafficking from Afghanistan turned into one of the leading drug trafficking in the world, and hard drugs at that. Therefore, I think that the Taliban will make Afghanistan a country that will at least be drug-free.
So, again, this is a military defeat for the United States, both in Afghanistan and Iraq. Back in 2008, when I was a guest of a teleconference with the United States, conducted by one of the TV channels, a representative of the Pentagon, a woman, openly stated that we would not leave Afghanistan, we would not leave Iraq, in Iraq we have either ten , or twelve bases, in Afghanistan - five or six, I don’t remember how many she named then. And so they left Iraq and Afghanistan. The American army has demonstrated that it is not able to solve the problem of control over the territory. The Soviet Union was capable of doing this. And the departure of the Soviet army from Afghanistan was not due to the fact that the USSR could not provide support for the friendly regime of Najibullah, but to the purely treacherous policy of Gorbachev. If the Soviet Union had remained there, then in ten years Afghanistan would have been a normal country, certainly friendly to us. And if the Taliban had appeared there, they would either have adapted to the new Afghanistan or would have been destroyed. One out of two.
As for the current situation, the Taliban reformatted because they clearly understood the difference between the Soviet and American presence. Colleagues who were in Afghanistan recently said that the Afghans constantly showed them that the Soviet Union built this, and that the Soviet Union built this, but they had nothing to say about the Americans. The memory of shuravi, which is transferred to Russia, is positive in Afghanistan. I think that after the Americans leave, relations between Russia and Afghanistan will improve qualitatively.
But what about Turkey’s ambitions in the region, which has already announced its readiness to take control of Kabul airport?
Turkey will certainly infiltrate Afghanistan. And Azerbaijan will help her in this first of all. Because Azerbaijan has now become a Turkish bridgehead. The recent meeting that took place between Erdogan and Aliyev in Shushi actually meant the beginning of joint actions to build Great Turan. Therefore, it must be clearly stated that in fact Azerbaijan has become a geopolitically hostile state to Russia. Just like Türkiye, which is not a friendly state to Russia. We must proceed from these realities and act accordingly.
It is especially unpleasant that against the background of this, in Armenia, which has always been a friendly country, a person has once again come to power who takes an openly pro-Western position. Although, as a result of the war in Karabakh, he seems to have brought his policy closer to Russia, I think this is a temporary phenomenon. Pashinyan will still show himself as a purely pro-American, pro-Western leader who will instill American and Western influence.
Why did the Armenian citizens allow themselves to step on a rake even after the Karabakh defeat, which was not complete only thanks to Russia, and chose Pashinyan again?
I recently spoke about this with the editor-in-chief of Noah's Ark ( an Armenian diaspora newspaper – ed .), and he told me that three factors were at play: administrative resources, vote-rigging, and an absolute dislike of Serzh Sargsyan, who openly plundered Armenia. And the fact that Kocharyan didn't distance himself from Sargsyan played a negative role. People largely voted for Pashinyan on the principle of "against Sargsyan."
He told me this in a conversation. I can add the following from myself, based on my own observations of how often entire nations turn out to be fooled and unable to discern the actions of their leaders. Conclusion - no more than 10 - 15% of the population are able to think analytically in the political field. It is precisely these 10–15% who understand everything and even call Nikol Pashinyan a traitor. But the rest follow the propaganda. And this is not only in Armenia, it is everywhere. People begin to understand what is good and what is bad only when the enemy knocks on their door, or, more precisely, breaks it open with a kick. And not in a figurative, but in a real sense.
So, what, in the end, can Russia expect on its southern borders in the near future?
At this stage, the same Taliban do not pose a threat; they will be engaged in the development of their country, expel the Americans, and establish their own Taliban laws. But the civil war in Afghanistan is not over yet. The Americans will leave, the Taliban is the only real political force that can come to power there, but this will not happen immediately after the Americans leave. There will still be a certain period of civil confrontation there, which may even drag on for several years. And during this period, some groups that are defeated by the Taliban, fleeing death, will cross the border of Afghanistan and go north. Some groups may begin hostilities in order to spread their influence to the countries of the post-Soviet space and will try to take revenge there. Groups of ISIS fighters, whom the Americans are now bringing to Afghanistan, will operate there. And some movements may begin within the Taliban itself, some groups will advocate cooperation with Russia, and some will advocate expansion towards its neighbors. Therefore, the situation on our southern borders will be tense for several years.
In this regard, the terrorist attacks recently prevented by the FSB, which were attempted to be carried out in Russia by immigrants from Central Asia, come to mind. And the statement by Deputy Prime Minister Marat Khusnullin about the need to attract another five million migrants...
Unfortunately, in our country, the economy is often viewed as an end in itself. It's not the economy that serves the people, but rather the people who serve the economy. And they completely ignore the fact that these migrants who arrive here are, of course, more profitable than the local population in terms of business profits, but such an approach could lead to the collapse of the state. Five million migrants means only one thing: five million people will appear in our country, most of whom hate our country, and this is the army that will shoot us in the back in the event of an emergency . We have enough of our own people; we just need to pay them a decent wage—and they will fill these vacancies that are currently being given to foreigners. Of course, no Russian citizen will work for fifteen thousand rubles, but pay them fifty thousand, reduce your income, curb your greed, and people will go to work.
Do you think that after leaving Afghanistan, the United States will continue to put pressure on Russia, or will it switch to its more serious enemy - China?
The pressure on Russia will continue to increase. Because Russia is the key to establishing globalist power over the world. Biden is a protege of the globalists, so he will continue to increase pressure on Russia. And local conflicts near Russian borders are only a means of achieving this goal. There will be armed local conflicts, new sanctions, and the activation of various pro-Western forces on our territory, which will indicate that Russia should change course to an even more liberal one. There will be sabotage of the liberal economic bloc in the Russian leadership, which will begin to create artificial economic difficulties that might not have existed. There will also be indulgence in the greed of officials, who will rake in even more for themselves, increasing personal profits in order to further aggravate the conflict between the population and the bureaucracy. This entire set of measures will be implemented by the West in order to blow up Russia, and they will try to do this.
Konstantin Sivkov: "Pressure on Russia will increase, but not with the help of the Taliban."