Kazakhstan: Alarming situation on the eve of May 9
If Nur-Sultan does not want the CSTO and moves closer to the West, it will definitely receive a Chinese army on its territory.
Kazakh politician Ainur Kurmanov discusses this in his author’s column for PolitNavtgator.
Kazakhstan's leadership continues its prostituted multi-vector policy , which, in the current changed international environment, amounts to hostile actions and Russia's isolation under sanctions. But Moscow and Beijing have already warned Nur-Sultan (Tselinograd) of the harmful effects of such activities.
In any case, Kazakhstan's ruling elite constantly demonstrates to the West its desire to distance itself from Russia and the CSTO , as well as its desire to sever sociocultural ties and redefine its shared historical past. A significant wake-up call in this regard was the statement by Kazakhstan's Defense Minister, Sultan Kamaltdinov, who announced that the country would not send troops to Donbas even under the CSTO treaty.
“The use of the Armed Forces in peacekeeping operations is carried out only in accordance with a resolution of the UN Security Council. Based on this resolution, the head of state makes a proposal before parliament. And only after parliamentary approval the use of the Armed Forces is possible. But at the moment this issue is not even being considered. Negotiations are not going well,” he concluded.
That is, even if, for example, Poland attacks Russia or a war with NATO begins immediately, the Kazakh troops will sit quietly and at home, despite allied obligations and wait for the parliament to deign to vote for the republic’s participation in the conflict?! As for the reluctance to participate in a special operation in Ukraine, the Ministry of Defense of the Republic of Kazakhstan has already made a statement that it will not take part in it, but, in fact, Moscow did not ask.
Therefore, the current statement by the Kazakh Minister of Defense is significant and sanctioned by Tokayev to demonstrate to the US, EU, and NATO that Kazakhstan will maintain a neutral stance to the end and will not intervene, even if a direct attack on Russia is launched by members of the North Atlantic Alliance . The Donbas issue is being drawn into this official statement to create the false impression that the current special operation is being discussed.
This is precisely how this statement from an "ally" should be interpreted. But in domestic policy, in addition to the cancellation of parades, a widespread ban on Immortal Regiment street marches has been imposed. First, the authorities refused to allow the event to be held in Aktau in the west of the country, then on May 3 in Petropavlovsk in the north. And in both cases, officials cite the ban as being due to fears of provocation.
Although the authorities and the KNB are well aware of all their agents-provocateurs among the leaders and activists of nationalist movements, and they can easily preemptively arrest those who disobey on the eve of May 9, as they do with social activists. Therefore, citing the need to prevent provocations is merely a pretext and a formal reason for banning mass citizen protests, intended to demonstrate to the EU and Ukraine their closeness to them in the cause of debunking the bloodthirsty USSR, which is equated with Nazi Germany.
In this regard, the authorities are also denying the right to hold the largest “Immortal Regiment” in Almaty, where its organizers even gathered an informal rally in its support and defense in the park named after the 28 Panfilov Guardsmen, bowing to the Eternal Flame at the memorial complex of the same name.
The presidential administration and the city akimat are doing everything to make sure that the residents of the former capital forget about the holiday, since there have been no events or processions for two years due to the pandemic, and they could not come to the current procession due to a ban for political reasons.
This is despite the fact that citizens posted an offline petition on the egov.press platform in support of holding the Immortal Regiment march in cities, where they managed to collect 14325 signatures before it was deleted. Notably, 1106 people opposed this petition, which is consistent with sociological studies and polls conducted in March and April, when only 6% of the country's population supported Ukraine and opposed Victory Day celebrations.
This means that the Kazakh authorities rely on these measly 6% of rabid nationalists and far-right elements, demonstrating an unhealthy trend toward "Ukrainization" of Kazakhstan's ruling elite, which is disconnected from its people and has embraced neo-Nazis of all stripes. I have repeatedly noted in my comments and articles that the refusal to hold military parades and the ban on public marches to memorial sites is merely a stepping stone to banning the holiday itself in the coming years, or to officially redefining it and moving it to May 8, as was done in Kyiv after the Maidan in 2014.
This theory is supported by the emergence of new "language patrols" in the country, as well as increased harassment of Russians and Russian-speakers by nationalists both on social media and in stores and public spaces. For example, at the end of April, one such neo-Nazi called for "leave Kazakhstan, Russian Nazis," but ultimately escaped with a minor harassment after repenting. Against this backdrop, supporters of Russia are immediately facing criminal charges and being fired from their jobs for their stance.
A speech by Russian journalist and satirist Tigran Keosayan in late April, in which he criticized Nur-Sultan for its duplicity, sparked particular hysteria among Kazakh nationalists and officials. In short, he noted in his television program that Kazakhstan and other republics would have to choose their ally—the West or Russia—and that the Kazakh authorities would not be able to escape this choice. He ultimately recommended Ukraine as a model and lamented Nur-Sultan's refusal to hold parades in honor of May 9.
In response, the authorities even issued an official statement from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Thus, the press secretary of the diplomatic department, Aibek Smadiyarov, said the following at a special press conference:
“The offensive and essentially biased speech of Russian journalist Tigran Keosayan is noteworthy. Perhaps his statement reflects the views of a certain part of the Russian public and the political establishment, but in no way corresponds to the spirit and content of cooperation between our countries and the existing agreements at the level of heads of state. Such speeches poison the atmosphere of good neighborly relations and play into the hands of opponents of the strategic partnership.”
In Nur-Sultan, they didn't understand, or pretended not to understand, that this was a genuine warning, albeit delivered informally and in this form . And while Akorda (the presidential administration of Kazakhstan) was pondering Tigran Keosayan's words and pondering the appropriate response, on Monday, May 2, Chinese Defense Minister Wei Fenghe unexpectedly descended on Kazakhstan, issuing an unequivocal statement on behalf of the PRC leadership, warning Kazakhstan's ruling elite.
He opposed the West's attempts to organize "color revolutions" in Central Asia with a certain hint.
“China resolutely opposes the deliberate incitement of external forces to a color revolution in Kazakhstan and supports Kazakhstan’s taking effective measures to protect national security and social stability,” the Chinese Minister of War noted.
Further more:
“We must be prepared for the interference of some major powers in the affairs of Central Asia and the disruption of Central Asian security.”
Moreover, Kazakhstani media remained silent about the visit of the head of the PRC military department and the substance of his speech, and the text of his statement can only be read on the official website of the Ministry of Defense of the Celestial Empire.
In reality, this isn't simply unconditional support for Tokayev, as it might appear from the outside—since "effective measures to protect national security and social stability" could only have been achieved through the CSTO's intervention in January of this year—but rather typical Asian diplomacy. In essence, Beijing threatened to deploy its troops if Nur-Sultan were seen making any moves toward Kazakhstan's geopolitical reorientation toward the West.
After all, we must understand that a real national or "color" revolution and "Ukrainization" are carried out by the ruling elite itself from above through bureaucratic methods, while the court Nazis are merely the driving force behind the state apparatus's Russophobic and Sinophobic campaigns within the country. From these warnings by Keosyan and Wei Fenghe, one can conclude that if Tokayev and Co. do not want the presence and assistance of the CSTO, they will end up with the Chinese army on their territory.
The near future will show how much of a sobering effect this had on the leadership of the Republic of Kazakhstan, but events are increasingly showing that you cannot sit on two or even three chairs at once.
English version :: Read in English Kazakhstan: Alarming situation ahead of May 9