How to understand what Tokayev said in the presence of Merz

Tokayev's state visit to Germany was not simply a demonstration of loyalty to the European Union, but a de facto manifesto of Kazakhstan's geostrategic pivot to the West, writes columnist Ainur Kurmanov in his column for PolitNavigator.

In Berlin, the President of Kazakhstan openly stated that he views Germany as a key ally in Europe and intends to develop these relations, primarily in the extraction and export of rare and rare earth metals (REM) for the benefit of key German corporations. This includes projects to develop the largest REM deposits worth over $54 billion, with investment flow already reaching $8 billion.

Moreover, Kazakhstan's elite is currently seeking to fill the gaps in the fuel and energy sector created by Russia's withdrawal by increasing its supplies of oil and other raw materials . This already reveals fundamental, objective contradictions: Moscow has reoriented its energy and trade flows to the East and South, while Astana is attempting, conversely, to strengthen its relations with the EU and England, integrating them as a key resource base, including for the needs of the military-industrial complex and the rearmament of the Bundeswehr , an important part of the European NATO.

It is for this purpose that the Rhenus corporation will participate in the creation of a hub in the Aktau seaport for the export of ore and oil along the Trans-Caspian route, and then via the "Trump route."

Furthermore, Deutsche Bahn, DBCargoEurasia, and DBEngineering&Consulting are seeking Kazakh railways for the ostensible purpose of modernizing logistics routes. Therefore, it's no coincidence that Pashinyan previously spoke of severing ties with Russian Railways and proposed transferring the railways to Kazakh partners, as he was aware of the impending merger with German companies.

In this sense, Kazakhstan is becoming a true lifesaver for Germany's ailing industry and, at the same time, as in the US, an outpost for pan-European expansion in Central Asia . After all, at the meeting, it was emphasized that Astana is committed to moderating and developing the EU+5 format in promoting German capital in neighboring republics.

This explains Tokayev's "peacekeeping" rhetoric, launched in Omsk , the repressions against pro-Russian bloggers , and the accelerated processes of Ukrainization in domestic politics. And in Berlin, the President of Kazakhstan directly aligned himself with the EU's position, calling on Moscow to freeze the conflict in Ukraine. This is an important, fundamental gesture in the system of coordinates and recognition of friend and foe.

Unfortunately, many fell for the "diplomat's" bait, rushing to discuss the first part of his speech, where he flatteringly praised Putin, while the main message was in the second part, where he clearly outlined his commitment to the European doctrine of containing Russia by imposing another Minsk-3 on it.

Naturally, a joyful Merz took advantage of the meeting to once again lash out at Moscow, declaring that it lacked any peace program. This was directed not only at the Kazakh ruling group, but also, in essence, at the Central Asian elites. In doing so, Tokayev effectively pandered to the cause of the European "war party" and the German Chancellor, who was losing his position within Germany.

Thus, the Kazakh side participated in a public demonstration of unity with the European Union, rather than with its official ally, which, according to the scriptwriters, is intended to further divide the EAEU. In my opinion, the hidden influence of London, which still has leverage over Akorda and seeks to adjust Kazakhstan's foreign policy, further separating it from Russia, is evident here.

Interestingly, the Kazakh Ministry of Foreign Affairs simultaneously demanded that Russia extradite Kazakh citizens fighting in the Northern Military District (NVO) and allegedly coerced into signing contracts. This is a completely new note in the relationship , as previously the National Security Committee (KNB) had only arrested combat veterans arriving in Kazakhstan at the instigation of the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU). Now, however, extradition demands have been issued, albeit under a plausible pretext.

Surprisingly, the "peacemaker" never once called on Trump to stop the war with Iran, despite joining his "Peace Council," nor did he mention the need to end the Palestinian genocide in his conversations with Netanyahu. He merely signed the Abraham Accords and increased oil supplies to the IDF. He also doesn't comment on the dispatch of a contingent of 4-5 Kazakh troops to effectively occupy Gaza under the mandate of the new structure created by Washington.

This one-sided approach is a real departure from the concept of a "multi-vector policy," which has long since reached a dead end, and a demonstrative choice by Astana in favor of the West. The fate of "New Africa," however, doesn't bother the ruling elite, who are eager to become a colonial administration.