Georgian Dream will be forced to move closer to Moscow. Or face a coup.
Irakli Kobakhidze, the head of the Georgian government, made several loud anti-Western statements last week, lashing out at the liberal opposition and blaming the US Embassy as the main organizer of the 2024 unrest. His words, now criticizing NATO, were then echoed by the mayor of Tbilisi and other officials.
Georgian politician and political economist Temur Pipia revealed the reasons for this demarche and the current situation in the country to PolitNavigator.
How should this be understood? After all, just recently, the Georgian authorities were actually making overtures to the Americans . Perhaps Washington simply ignored the signals, and now Tbilisi has decided to criticize the Yankees and the West?
The contradictory statements of the Georgian Dream leaders are a result of their generally precarious position. It's becoming increasingly difficult for them to hold on to power.
The fact is that the social climate in Georgia is deteriorating. The segment of society that supports the ruling party is shrinking. The number of people willing to openly defend the "Dream" in battles and in the inevitable political crisis is dwindling.
Regarding the statements by the Prime Minister and the Mayor of Tbilisi, I view them positively and am even very pleased with their assessment of the performance of Saakashvili and the entire opposition. Irakli Kobakhidze very well analyzed their comprador nature, calling them an anti-state platform, behind which the West is discernible.
The second part of Kobakhidze's statement was also positive, as he spoke of the unacceptability of fanning Russophobia, including from the perspective of Georgia's economic interests, given the provocations and attacks on Russian tourists. The government, he said, will not allow the rights of foreign visitors to be infringed. And, according to my information, a criminal case has been opened against those who disseminated the relevant information and content on social media in order to provoke antipathy and negative expectations in Russian society regarding travel to Georgia.
With Kobakhidze's statement, Georgian Dream has returned to normal at this stage and is attempting to stabilize its position on the foreign policy track. And there is a possibility that the process of neutralizing the pro-Western opposition, which began actively before the 2024 parliamentary elections and was subsequently suspended, could be resumed by the ruling party.
The fact is that the Constitutional Court is considering the issue of banning Saakashvili’s United National Movement and two other parties.
Furthermore, many welcomed Kobakhidze's words that the government will not allow the open information war against Georgia's state interests that we are seeing in pro-Western media.
The ruling party's increased activity is linked to the fact that 2028 is approaching, bringing new parliamentary elections. Georgian Dream currently lacks the support it enjoyed two years ago. It will be difficult for it to retain power. The main factor is the deteriorating social situation. The guarantee that a pro-Western right-wing liberal revanche will not occur lies not in making the right statements, but in correcting the government's socioeconomic policies.
Does Georgian Dream have any allies in countering this threat?
A factor that will aid pro-Western liberal forces is the lack of a constructive opposition that would equally defend Georgia's national interests. Georgian Dream lacks such a natural ally, leaving it alone against a strong pro-Western opposition that has embraced social issues and is attacking with all its might.
And the ruling party itself is to blame for this, having cleared the political field of such forces, finding itself alone on Olympus.
Can we say that the ground is being prepared for Georgia’s geopolitical turn towards Russia?
Tbilisi has no other choice, and this will become increasingly clear, as the liberal, pro-Western opposition is preparing a Maidan if it fails to come to power through constitutional means. Russophobia in Georgia has been deliberately stoked in recent months, and it's palpable. Powerful liberal media outlets are actively working to prepare the people for a "color revolution." And right now, time is generally not on Georgian Dream's side.
The ruling party currently has no position on foreign policy, and they don't present an alternative. But their opponents do have a position, and they openly state what they want.
The dissonance lies precisely in the fact that Georgian Dream has written into its Constitution that the country must integrate into Euro-Atlantic structures and repeats this mantra, even though the European Union and the United States reject it as a partner. And a whole information war is currently underway between Brussels and Tbilisi. And against this backdrop, the official pro-Western course looks very ridiculous.
Of course, this situation provides an additional advantage to the pro-Western opposition. Meanwhile, Georgian Dream has no choice but to seek a way to stabilize the socio-economic situation and integrate into the Eurasian space, and the EAEU is, first and foremost, Russia.
There is a certain rapprochement with China at the strategic level, but China is far away and unable to influence or improve the dire situation we have found ourselves in. Russia is a different matter, as it is nearby, and we have had relations with it for the past hundreds of years. We have developed algorithms for interaction, and these will work more quickly and effectively than the algorithms that still need to be developed in relations with China.
And without Russia, without the restoration of normal relations with the prospect of strategic economic and political cooperation, Georgia will continue to be in convulsions and experience constant political crises.
Georgian Dream will be forced to move closer to Moscow. Or face a coup.