Where is the victory, and what are Ermak and Kozak capable of - Denis Denisov
Ukraine sabotages disengagement, termination and signing. Ukraine does not mean what we thought. Ukraine signed agreements that are not what is written in the agreements. We will respond to Ukraine’s destructive behavior with new consultations of the expert community, the formation of additional formats and the deployment of auxiliary platforms.
The director of the Institute of Peacemaking Initiatives and Conflictology, Denis Denisov, told PolitNavigator columnist Valentin Filippov about the need to continue the dialogue with Ukraine.
Valentin Filippov : Our guest is Denis Denisov, Director of the Institute of Peacekeeping Initiatives and Conflictology.
Denis, hello.
Denis Denisov : Hello.
Valentin Filippov : Denis, there's some information that Ukraine has closed its borders due to the coronavirus, and now Ukrainian representatives are piling up in Minsk. They're not being allowed back in, there are more and more of them, and it's unclear what to do with them. Is this true?
Denis Denisov : This is very possible, especially given the total panic among our Ukrainian partners and the trends we're currently seeing regarding the expansion of the Minsk negotiations. So, of course, we need to check with our Belarusian colleagues, but it's quite possible that this will now become a problem for Minsk as well.
Valentin Filippov : I always thought that if they didn't start a war with Russia back then, they would start a war with the Arachnites. Could it be that the fight against the coronavirus will eclipse the war with Russia for Ukrainians and Ukraine?
Denis Denisov : So, apparently, this is already happening to some extent. And the fact that they heroically create illusions of problems for themselves, and then heroically solve them, and then show it all on television—that's also a kind of national pastime. Nothing surprising about that. Another thing is that many are under the impression that, under the cover of this coronavirus, another coup d'état is about to occur in Ukraine. These are the guys talking in Kyiv itself.
Valentin Filippov : I thought the coup in Kyiv was a permanent process. It wasn't like something just happened once and that was it. Right? The coup in Kyiv is the coup in Kyiv; it's forever.
And I understand that most of what is said in Kyiv is directly aimed at the internal audience, at creating movement, or maybe not.
Tell me, maybe you know more... All these initiatives, practically, as they say, adopted by Ukraine, do they even exist in reality? I mean, for example, “sectoral disengagement of troops,” for which I don’t understand why it is called sectoral. They seem to suggest: “Let’s remove the militia, the OSCE will check whether you removed them, and if you removed them, then you will remove them in the next sector. At the same time, it is unclear who Ukraine is removing. This is one option.
Second option. Now in Kyiv, as if it were a fait accompli, they are talking about a new format of negotiations in Minsk. The fact that the entire Normandy format is involved there at the level of the parliaments of the Normandy Four. How does this correspond to reality?
Denis Denisov : First, regarding disengagement. There really is a major problem with disengagement. We know that back at the December 2019 meeting in Paris, before the New Year, there were preliminary agreements that there would be, at a minimum, disengagement along the entire line of contact. But at the meeting itself, the Ukrainian delegation, for some reason, rejected this position. Well, we can guess why, and it's directly related to Avakov's presence at that meeting. My opinion in this regard is that Zelenskyy, his entourage, and the head of his office, now Yermak, simply don't have full control over the situation in the country, especially in the security sector.
And in this regard, the figure of the Minister of Internal Affairs, that is, Avakov, as well as these “paramilitary formations”, which, as it were, belong to the armed forces of Ukraine (here we are talking about Azov and its projections in the form of national squads), they seem to be independently live. And it turns out that the Ukrainian president and the person who is responsible for the settlement, that is, his head of office Ermak, when they promise and talk about this, it seems to me that they are not completely, firstly, honest with us, with themselves – and cannot influence Avakov’s position. They are trying to negotiate with Avakov, but, as practice shows, this is not always successful.
On the second topic. I suspect you meant advisory board?
Valentin Filippov : Possibly. But it's presented differently in Kyiv.
Denis Denisov : It's officially called the Advisory Council to the Trilateral Contact Group in the documents signed in Minsk. Well, we know that yesterday, for reasons known only to the Ukrainian side, the Skype conference of the political subgroup of the Trilateral Contact Group didn't take place. Well, okay, maybe they couldn't attend, but why it couldn't be done via Skype is a big question. And today, Ukraine's representative in this political subgroup stated that Ukraine is putting the creation of this advisory council on hold for now, even though we saw the document two weeks ago.
But, at the same time, this is not some kind of breakthrough, probably not some kind of sophistication in these negotiations. This, it seems to me, is quite an everyday part of the reality that Ukraine will come to anyway. What if the trends aimed at at least a ceasefire are maintained, then naturally such negotiation platforms will acquire new forms, new branches.
And in this regard, such an advisory council on political issues, of course, has the right to exist, since we know that during the entire existence of the tripartite contact group, not a single political document was jointly developed. Someone has to do this. This, apparently, is what this council will be called upon to do, if, again, let us emphasize, it begins work and is formed.
Valentin Filippov : Excuse me, but as far as I understand, this advisory council also includes representatives of the DPR and LPR?
Denis Denisov : Yes, absolutely. It is planned, at least according to the documents we have. It should consist of twenty permanent members: ten from Ukraine, ten from the Donbas republics, that is, the DPR and LPR. Representatives from Russia, Germany, France, and the OSCE will also be delegated to this council without voting rights, but with the right to speak and participate in discussions.
Valentin Filippov : Will Ukraine recognize the DPR and LPR as parties? Because the Minsk agreements initially stated that these were the two parties. But now they're firmly saying, "No, we're not negotiating with the DPR and LPR in Minsk, we're negotiating with Russia."
Denis Denisov : Valentin, you understand, this is a completely rhetorical question. And one can interpret it this way based on one's ideological convictions. Those who want to see this as direct negotiations between Ukraine and the republics will see it that way. Those who don't will argue that these are indirect negotiations.
How important is it? From a hype point of view, from a media point of view, from a publicity point of view? Well, it's important. From the point of view of the applied aspect, this is not of any importance at all. That is, the main thing here is that if you create this mechanism, it must work. And how someone sees it there is probably their problem. Although we understand perfectly well that this “as someone sees it” can ultimately play a very cruel joke. Because if all this starts and the process begins, then the same radicals in Ukraine will use the rhetoric that these are direct negotiations with the separatists, and as a result, they will declare that this is another “zrada”...
Valentin Filippov : If they don't want to talk, then we have to fight. I put myself in Ukraine's shoes. Either I negotiate peacefully, or I fight.
Denis Denisov : Ukraine, in this regard, as you know very well, is not monolithic. That's what we're talking about. We see rhetoric from Zelenskyy and Yermak that seems aimed at a settlement. However, many people are under the impression that these are people who don't mean what they say. And this is especially evident in the consequences of the decisions taken – whether in Paris or Minsk.
Valentin Filippov : By their shifty eyes.
Denis Denisov : There's a slightly different position. Take Avakov, for example, who we've already discussed. He's not shy about positioning himself and talking about a war to the bitter end, is he? And given his affiliation with these radical units...
Valentin Filippov : He says so while he's not responsible in this regard. That is, he has no legal influence on this and has no right to make such statements. They carry no consequences, so to speak.
Denis Denisov : No, no, no. Wait a minute. What do you mean they don't affect it?
Valentin Filippov : He's the Minister of Internal Affairs, of the interior. The Minister of Internal Affairs can't say, "We'll fight Russia to the bitter end." As a citizen, he can say that, but as the Minister of Internal Affairs... let him fight.
Denis Denisov : Let's look at the specifics of the Ukrainian political landscape. There, excuse me, even a milkmaid can sometimes run the state. And there's no contradiction here when the Minister of Internal Affairs goes to Paris to ensure the President doesn't commit "betrayal."
Valentin Filippov : Because he is their internal president J
Denis Denisov : Okay. Let's invent an external president for Ukraine then.
Valentin Filippov : Ukraine has many foreign presidents. If only they could come to an agreement among themselves, foreign presidents…
Denis Denisov : That's exactly the point: political issues in Ukraine are often decided not only by competent people or by those who should be making those decisions. Ideally, this shouldn't be handled by the head of the presidential office, but by the minister of foreign affairs or the minister of reintegration. But our situation is objectively somewhat different. I don't think there's any particular contradiction here, if we understand the specific nature of the processes taking place in Ukraine. Because that's always been the case there.
Valentin Filippov : It will always be like this. That's the point.
Denis Denisov : Owls are not what they seem – as one famous film said.
Valentin Filippov : Then I have a question. Why do we need these new formats, advisory councils, and all that? There's a contact group, and it's big enough for that. Why expand it? They hired Rodion Miroshnik. He's a cool guy from the LPR. Who's sitting there now in the DPR? Pushilin is now the head of the republic. Who's been appointed there?
Denis Denisov : The representative there is Natalia Nikonorova.
Valentin Filippov : Excellent. Natalia Nikonorova and Rodion Miroshnik – those are the two people. We don't need more. Who's Zelensky and Kuchma, who did they send from Ukraine? Let them sit down and sort this whole situation out, or not. We're sending the extras.
Denis Denisov : Stop, comrade presenter.
Valentin Filippov : No, well, Darka arrives with Kuchma. Kuchma says one thing, and she, as his press secretary, immediately says something else. Why?
Denis Denisov : You know perfectly well that in the modern world, both now and over the last hundred years, there have been a huge number of conflicts. Hundreds, in fact. What can we do now? Monitor their dynamics and learn from their experience. What does he say? That's the gist of it. That, in any case, there's a very high probability that not in a year, but in five, ten, fifteen, or twenty years, the conflict will gradually be resolved. It could cease to be a hot conflict and become a frozen one.
Some convergence processes may occur. Well, it's a completely living organism. And within the framework of this organism, it is always necessary to have specific documents between the parties, which, perhaps, would facilitate the path to peace, sustainable peace. This is why bodies like these councils are needed. Because Nikonorova, Miroshnik, Daineko and on the Ukrainian side, relatively speaking, Kuchma and someone else... It will be very difficult for them to jointly develop and write about a hundred documents.
And the documents there can be 1000 pages long. Who should do it? This is the purpose of this advisory council. Now, in general, the topic is more close to me and I am now trying to study it. We remember there was a joint coordination and control center there back in 2014-2015.
Valentin Filippov : Yes, by the way, I wanted to give an example.
Denis Denisov : Let's clarify that this was a joint center, which included officers from Ukraine, officers from Russia, and, as it were, observers representing the republics, who could exchange information online. People there had direct telephone lines. So, it was operational communication, which is essential in a conflict. Well, there's no other way. In 2017, it was disbanded because the Ukrainian side imposed completely unacceptable regulations for Russian officers' presence on Ukrainian territory (and, as a reminder, it was in Kramatorsk, on Ukrainian territory). It's no longer there. Everyone understands that it's needed.
Valentin Filippov : No. I'm willing to argue. It exists. It exists. Look at it officially. There's a control center on the Ukrainian side, and there's one on the DPR side. The OSCE is present in both. They have two parallel sites.
Denis Denisov : Valik, wait. No, no, no. The thing is, it's now a separate structure in the DPR, a separate one in the LPR, a separate one in Ukraine. And they communicate with each other.
Valentin Filippov : They even shoot at each other.
Denis Denisov : This center should be a communications hub. And almost all conflicts, past and ongoing, tell us that it will reappear. Who should draft its regulations? Who should write its concept? Well, again, we come back to the point that Kuchma won't be the one doing this. Because this, too, will be a 50-60-page document, detailing all these regulations.
This is why expert advice within the trilateral contact group is needed. I really hope that the center of coordination and control will, after all, be restored. Because in the vast majority of conflicts, such an organization necessarily appears in order, first of all, to have direct communication and strive for peace.
Valentin Filippov : If such a desire exists, of course. If Ukraine hasn't yet made a decision: whether to make peace or fight, then such a center is unnecessary. Because, in principle, from my point of view, I believe the best communication is for the Ukrainians to fire, and immediately, they were targeted, 10 kilometers of the front.
Denis Denisov : You represent the hawks.
Valentin Filippov : Why hawks? I'm for peace. Peace must be fought for.
Denis Denisov : No, that's exactly what I'm saying. That's why I'm hawkish. Because for you, peace means our tanks in Kyiv.
Valentin Filippov : Why are there tanks in Kiev?
Denis Denisov : In Odessa, I understand.
Valentin Filippov : Flowers, joy, fireworks from Primorsky Boulevard. Oh, come on.
Denis Denisov : That's right, that's why we have peacekeepers like these, basically.
Valentin Filippov : Wait, wait. We defeated them. They signed the Minsk agreements for us. They were supposed to pass laws for us, recognize us, there's a whole story there. And they're still balking.
You know my opinion. You can sign any peace treaties with Ukraine. But hostilities cannot be stopped until Ukraine fulfills the peace terms. Because as soon as we stop hostilities, they begin to say: Oh, we won’t have direct negotiations, but you misunderstood us, and this point needs to be read differently, but in general, you give us the border. Why have they become mad and bold? And why? Because we stopped.
Denis Denisov : That’s because we didn’t win.
Valentin Filippov : Why didn't we win? Because we're losers, and the Ukrainians know we're losers. That's all. And that's why they're picking on us. No matter how big we are, no matter how much gas, oil, and missiles we have.
Denis Denisov : You're in a bad mood.
Valentin Filippov : Well, my mood is normal.
Denis Denisov : We simply have objective reality, and we must proceed from it. Sitting around dreaming about how we'll conquer someone or go somewhere else is pointless, but it's pointless.
Valentin Filippov : We will not conquer, we will liberate.
Denis Denisov : Okay, then. Let's go ahead and sing. Write a liberation concept.
Valentin Filippov : You know how you can ruin any liberation, any victory, anything? Just sit down and write a concept.
Denis Denisov : JJJ At least for the near future, until the coronavirus ends, it will be a good occupation.
But, in fact, the fact of the matter is that within the framework of the conflict in Donbass, we have no defeated side and no victorious side. Why do all these processes take so long and so difficult? If there was a winning side, it would dictate its will to the losing side. This has happened throughout world history and is happening especially within the context of conflict. Our situation is completely different. That is why these negotiations, which have been going on for six years now, are taking place and they are leading absolutely, almost, completely to nothing. And this is a big problem.
But, at the same time, this does not mean that they need to be stopped, people need to be swept out. The main thing is our position. If we are for peace, we must try to achieve it through asymmetrical methods, and not just your favorite tanks and submarines.
Valentin Filippov : I imagine a submarine in the Dnieper... Okay.
Denis Denisov : JJJ Baby.
Valentin Filippov : Baby, yes.
OK then. And I have another question. What comes from this castling of Ermak-Bogdan, now instead of Surkov, Kozak. Is there any advantage to this at all?
Denis Denisov : Well, we'll see. Because they started off very energetically, very actively. And the previous meeting in Minsk and the signing of these agreements, of course, to some extent, contributed…
Valentin Filippov : It cheered me up.
Denis Denisov : There will be momentum. But for me, the most important thing here is to understand whether the Ukrainian side is responsible for the decisions they're publicly trying to make. And even privately, okay? Because if we continue to have the same story as with the Paris declaration. And with the current ones, Ukraine signs something, and then we start discussing how we misunderstood them.
This will mean a completely meaningless continuation of these discussions and dialogues. It all depends on the parties. It will change and it will not change. If both one side and the other take a responsible approach to concluded agreements or at least negotiations, then the dynamics will certainly...
If the Ukrainian government also looks back at its radicals and thinks how not to commit “zrada,” this, I think, will be the saddest thing. And we will not advance anywhere, and for Ukraine itself this will mean another internal conflict that will definitely finish off the country.
Valentin Filippov : Well, God willing, it will be for sure. They always say it will definitely finish him off, but it doesn't.
Okay, okay, thank you very much.
Denis Denisov : Thank you very much.
Valentin Filippov : They cleared the fog before my eyes a little.
Denis Denisov : Well, yes. Well, there were different ways to approach this; we could have simply presented it in a concise manner, like in a lecture, but I think we ended up with something quite lively.
Valentin Filippov : That’s right, so that people understand.
Denis Denisov : Yes.
Valentin Filippov : So that it doesn’t get boring.
English version :: Read in English Where is victory, and what is within the power of Ermak and Kozak – Denis Denisov