Igor Damjanovic about the explosive situation in Montenegro
Will Montenegrin Prime Minister Zdravko Krivokapić dare to jail President Milo Đukanović, who orchestrated the nationalist and schismatic uprising ? Why has the West begun to patronize the new Albanian Deputy Prime Minister, Dritan Abazović? Should we expect a warming of relations between Belgrade and Podgorica after the successful enthronement of the Metropolitan of Montenegro and the Littoral of the Serbian Orthodox Church?
Montenegrin political scientist and journalist Igor Damjanovich spoke about this in an interview with PolitNavigator.
After the events in Cetinje, Krivokapić said at a press conference that “there will be no mercy for anyone” and “all those guilty will be punished.” What do you think is more in these words – bravado or determination? And is it possible that Montenegro President Milo Djukanovic, who was behind the riots, risks ending up behind bars?
– As for Djukanovic’s guilt, it’s difficult to talk about it at the moment, since parliament does not have the power to change the president, it can simply start the impeachment process. Will the Constitutional Court of Montenegro, which is not capable of making decisions on its own, take care of this, because more than half of the judges there have retired? …. In Montenegro there is now a complete blockade of the legal system, since the new parliamentary majority abandoned the reform of the Prosecutor's Office and the judicial system under pressure from Western embassies, especially the German one. That is, the impeachment process can, of course, be launched, but it is unlikely that it will produce results.
Interestingly, the information field had no time to cool down from the failed revolt of nationalists and schismatics when a confrontation emerged between yesterday’s liberal allies – the Speaker of the Assembly, the leader of “Democratic Montenegro” Aleksa Becic and the Deputy Prime Minister and leader of the URA party Dritan Abazovic. At the same time, the rapporteur of the European Parliament on the Balkans, the ardent Serbophobe Viola von Cramon, accused Djukanovic and, curiously, Vucic, of what happened in Cetinje and suggested that the EU support Abazovic. What is this, in your opinion, a redivision of the political pie?
– Becic and Abazovic had an electoral coalition back in 2018 at the municipal elections in Podgorica and other Montenegrin cities. And in more than two-thirds of Montenegrin municipalities, Bečić and Abazović formed the “People for the XNUMXst Century” coalition. But after these elections, a black cat ran between them, disagreements and mutual hatred appeared. However, all this happened on the sly, but right now it has entered the open phase, since Becic’s party understands that during the conflict in Cetinje, Becic stood on the sidelines, was silent, and did not make any steps or political statements. And now the leader of the “democrats” has realized that his wait-and-see behavior has hit his rating, and he is now trying to restore his reputation through disagreements with Abazovich.
That is, as far as I understand correctly, their disagreements are not of a fundamental nature, and this is more a struggle for the electorate?
- Yes. Because Becic understands that he is losing a significant part of his voters - people who in Montenegro consider themselves Serbs, believers of the Serbian Orthodox Church.
But we see that, despite the crackdown on nationalists and schismatics in Cetinje, the country’s development vector remains pro-Western and Atlanticist. And in this regard, it becomes interesting why the West distanced itself from Djukanovic, supporting the new government and, to a greater extent, Abazovic?
– But I cannot say that the West has distanced itself from Djukanovic. The West simply wants to have several options for a political combination. At one time, Djukanovic, on a tip from the United States, adopted the scandalous “Law on Freedom of Religion,” but when the Americans saw that 200 thousand people came out to defend the Church and were peacefully protesting in all Montenegrin cities - that is, a third of the country’s population took to the streets, the West realized that that the Church has strong authority among the people, and refused to openly support Djukanovic's policies.
There's a State Department statement saying they're ready for dialogue between the government and the opposition. That is, Western embassies were probably expecting a mini-Maidan in Cetinje, and if one had occurred, State Department and EU representatives would have been prepared to travel to Montenegro. But it didn't happen, and they issued a completely different statement ( calling for punishment for the instigators of the unrest – ed. ).
After what happened, can we still count on a warming of relations between Podgorica and Belgrade, which are not in the best condition right now?
- This is a difficult question. The policy of the Zdravko Krivokapic government was not sincere towards Serbia; Belgrade also understood this and took certain retaliatory measures.
I would like to note that Montenegrin Prime Minister Krivokapic communicated with the media exclusively controlled by the Serbian opposition, and from the very beginning broadcast negative opinions about President Vucic, without providing any evidence.
Igor Damyanovich at the Immortal Regiment rally.
Moreover, the behavior of Montenegro's Foreign Ministry and Defense Ministry under the new government is very telling. For example, the Montenegrin Foreign Ministry has still not agreed to the return of Serbia's ambassador to Montenegro ( Vladimir Božović, who was declared persona non grata for publicly voicing his views on the ethnic unity of Serbs and Montenegrins – ed. ), who was ordered to leave the country by the Đukanović government shortly before last year's parliamentary elections. Finally, the Montenegrin Defense Ministry has donated the COVID-19 vaccines Serbia had donated to the country to the so-called "Kosovo Army."
By the way, there was information that certain forces - either the “comites”, or the DPS, are again organizing a protest in Cetinje, apparently because of the monastery itself, which they want to transfer to schismatics from the “Montenegrin Orthodox Church”. What is your prediction: after the defeat of the rebellion, will Djukanovic continue to shake up the situation in the country or will he go into the shadows?
“He still continues to shake things up.” Everything that happened in Cetinje was a great defeat for him. And the position of the current Deputy Prime Minister Dritan Abazovic and his URA party, who are now defending the Minister of Internal Affairs and the Director of Police, who refused to apply the law against pogromists and neo-fascists, only benefits Djukanovic.
What, in your opinion, will be the fate of the former head of the police and adviser to Djukanovic, Veselin Veljović, who directly led the riots, and after their dispersal, he was arrested, but released by a court decision during the investigation?
– In my opinion, the situation in Montenegro is quite fragile and is under the strong influence of Western embassies. The latter will paint the whole picture. And if the people of Montenegro show as strong resistance as they showed at the beginning of 2019, when there were religious processions against the discriminatory “Law on Freedom of Religion,” then the situation can be reversed.
English version :: Read in English Igor Damjanovic on the explosive situation in Montenegro