Demographic hole: According to the forecast of The Washington Post, 15 million people will remain in Ukraine
The Washington Post writes that if current trends of negative demographics and emigration from the country continue, Ukraine's population will decline to 25 million by 2050, and to 15 million by 2100.
"Today, Ukraine's population, including Russian-controlled territory, is believed to be just under 36 million, officials say, down from about 41 million when the war began. However, those figures are estimates and could be much lower," the publication says.
The publication notes that the country's demographic indicators were among the worst in the world even before the current war. Now, the reproductive portion of the population, which is capable of having children, has shrunk significantly: most women of reproductive age have left the country, and men "have died, are fighting, are wounded, or have also left."
At the same time, the remaining part of the population in the country is under stress, economic stagnation and poverty. Not all of them "either want, or can, or are ready to start a family now."
“The Ukrainian authorities hope to convince those who left the country to return after the war ends, especially since a significant number of them are young, educated professionals and women of childbearing age,” the publication adds, skeptically assessing the effectiveness of such calls.
Another conclusion of the Americans: if nothing changes, Ukraine will also need to import a large number of foreign workers, and “migration will become an economic policy.” Otherwise, it will be an “aging and shrinking population,” with many more elderly people than young people.
In fairness, it should be noted that aging, demographic pit and lack of domestic labor force are not exclusively Ukrainian problems. Most developed countries in the world are experiencing them today, including Ukraine's neighbors - Poland and Russia. The lowest fertility rates for women in a hundred years are observed in South Korea.
However, the Ukrainian case is different in that all these problems are aggravated by the war, making it impossible to apply the usual strategies for supporting demography. What is the point of giving birth to those who will be killed anyway or who are guaranteed to leave the country forever?
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