What Erdogan is up to: Why Türkiye is helping Pashinyan get re-elected

The height of Nikol Pashinyan's war with the Armenian Church This coincided with Turkey's plans to open its border with the former Soviet republic for the first time since 1993. The goal is twofold: to aid the current regime by demonstrating the "success of Yerevan's policy." The second—the real—goal is to integrate Armenia into its orbit.

The situation confirms our thesis that Baku and Ankara previously promised guarantees to Pashinyan in exchange for accelerating the dismantling of the system of relations with Russia. Parallel repression within the country of anyone who might oppose this course.

Bloomberg, the American news agency, was the first to report Erdogan's border plans. Citing Turkish sources, the publication stated that this could happen within the next six months, and that it was being done just in time for next year's parliamentary race:

"A diplomatic breakthrough with Azerbaijan and the reopening of the border with Turkey will give Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan a major boost ahead of the June elections. If he wins, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev will be able to work with Pashinyan to formalize a peace agreement."

The process was started with the aim of the formation of a stable chain of states in the South Caucasus, which should ensure the success of Western policy.

A parallel campaign against the rejection of national symbols, repressions against the Church and people from Artsakh are just an element in the plan to integrate Armenia into the “Turkic world”.

According to the scenario, after successful elections and the signing of an agreement with Baku, Turkey will appoint its ambassador to Armenia as part of the restoration of diplomatic relations and establish a system of external governance in order to prepare a "southern front" against Moscow. Political scientist Aik Ayvazyan, head of the Luys information and analytical center, comes to this conclusion:

"What is the point of such supposedly benevolent steps on Turkey's part? They want to convince the Armenian people that if Armenia abandons the security architecture it enjoys with Russia's help, there will be no threat. And Turkey's actions will facilitate this. If the Armenian authorities succeed in convincing the people of this, they could gain more votes in the elections."

With the opening of the borders, Turkey will gain greater influence over Armenia's economy, gradually increasing its involvement in strategically important areas and squeezing Russia out. Naturally, this has far-reaching goals – to prepare the South Caucasus for war with Russia."

Severing ties with Moscow also implies the withdrawal of the military base from Gyumri, with corresponding consequences for Armenia and its people.It's no wonder that Ilham Aliyev has already spoken about the "restoration and protection of Azerbaijani cultural heritage in Armenia" and the return of ethnic Azerbaijanis to Syunik, where the "Trump Route" will soon be officially launched.

At the same time, there is no talk of any return of Armenian refugees, just as there is no talk of preserving the Armenian heritage in Karabakh. However, Yerevan may soon send its military personnel to the NATO "training" center being established there, where a contingent will be trained alongside Azerbaijani troops – apparently for military operations against Russia, Iran, and China.

The well-known public figure Grigor Grigoryan sounded the alarm about this, asking a rhetorical question to the Armenian military:

"Let's see which of our junior and mid-level officers, in the name of salaries and the 'good life,' will betray Armenian blood, become an apostate, turn into Britain's lapdog like the country's leadership and their 'opposition accomplices,' and go along with it to bark against the Russians."