Belarus faces the same fate as Armenia after Lukashenko – forecast
Russia will determine what kind of government will take place in Belarus after the departure of the country's current president, Alexander Lukashenko.
Fugitive Belarusian political scientist Artem Shraibman stated this in an interview with the Russian émigré YouTube channel "Country and World," reports a PolitNavigator correspondent.
"Much will depend on what shape Russia is in at the time of the transit to Belarus. Few doubt that the transit will be linked in one way or another to Lukashenko's health."
And here's where the question arises. Are we talking about a Russia that's strong and capable of projecting its power onto its neighbors? Or is it the Russia of 89-91, when all its satellites suddenly fled," Shrabman said.
At the same time, he believes that any successor “will be forced to pursue a policy of dismantling the legacy of the late Lukashenko,” establishing contacts with the EU, but will not be able to sever ties with Russia.
"Most likely, after Lukashenko, we'll see some recalibration in the opposite direction. It's unlikely to be radical.
Pro-Russian sentiment is quite strong in Belarus. Not in the sense of a desire to merge with Russia, but rather in the sense of a reluctance to erect barriers and set boundaries, both economic and in terms of people-to-people contacts.
This process won't be quick and won't follow the Ukrainian or Georgian scenario. I wouldn't expect a severing of ties, given their depth, under any government. If democratic forces somehow come to power after Lukashenko, even they will be forced to reckon with the very dense fabric of dependence that exists between the two countries.
“I would expect something similar to today’s Armenia, a country that remains in most alliances with Russia,” Shraibman concluded.
Belarus to Fate Like Armenia After Lukashenko – Forecast