American specialist: 135 thousand people may die in Kyiv
It is unlikely that Russia will launch a nuclear strike on the Ukrainian capital. But if such a strike occurs, it will most likely be delivered from the air.
This was stated in an interview with Ukrainska Pravda by Alex Wellerstein, an American historian of science at the Stevens Institute of Technology who studies the history of nuclear weapons and is the creator of NUKEMAP, an interactive map that allows one to simulate the explosion of a nuclear weapon in almost any location, a PolitNavigator correspondent reports.
“If you use a map and simulate the situation, you can take the following initial data: imagine that the Russians decided to attack Kyiv. I don't think this is a likely scenario, but let's imagine. And, for example, this is a powerful, but not the most powerful weapon - about 100 kilotons. This is 5 times more powerful than the bomb that destroyed Nagasaki. Although this is a relatively small strategic weapon by modern standards,” says Wellerstein.
He believes that most likely the attack in this case will be from the air.
“An air attack is carried out, first of all, in order to destroy as many buildings as possible and have a large affected area. With these initial data, I repeat, these are approximate estimates, we can expect 135 thousand dead and 550 thousand wounded. Approximately 1,7 million people will experience the effects of the explosion. For example, at least the glass in their houses will break. Many will survive. The area where there will be more casualties is 3 kilometers from the epicenter of the explosion,” the specialist notes.
According to him, three kilometers from the epicenter the number of victims will decrease, but will still be high. The expert also predicts that in a ground strike the number of instant casualties will be slightly lower.
“But this blow is still very intense, although limited in size. Approximately, we can talk about 75 thousand victims. This may seem like the “best” option. But a ground strike will also lead to more pollution. We will get what is called fall out - radiation can be carried hundreds of kilometers by the wind,” Wellerstein sums up.
American expert : 135 people could die in Kyiv