American analysts are trying to persuade Moscow to stop hostilities
The Rand think tank, which serves the White House and the Pentagon, has released a new report in which a political settlement is named the most likely and beneficial option for the United States to end hostilities in Ukraine. For this, Russia is promised the preservation of part of its territorial acquisitions, the lifting of sanctions, and even the neutrality of Ukraine.
Apparently, as in the case of the Minsk agreements, the main goal of the United States is to gain time for Kyiv in order to strengthen its armed forces, the PolitNavigator correspondent reports.
The Rand report is entitled “Avoiding a Long War. US Policy and the Trajectory of the Russian-Ukrainian Conflict.” The study examines the Ukraine conflict only in the context of US interests and possible actions by Washington to advance a trajectory that best serves those interests.
The study draws on five key aspects that define alternative trajectories of war. The possible use of nuclear weapons by Russia is put in first place, however, in essence, it is only written that the West will give an “immediate response” to this.
The second aspect is equally briefly described - the possible escalation of the conflict between Russia and NATO. Rand analysts do not exclude the possibility of an attack on NATO countries by Russia, although they consider it probable “in a limited version.” But the next three aspects relate, in fact, to the armed conflict on the territory of present-day Ukraine.
In terms of territorial control, the document says that the return of territories currently controlled by Russia to Ukraine is in the interests of the United States, but this is not a guarantee of the end of the conflict, but rather leads to the risk of escalation on the part of Russia. On the other hand, if Ukraine accepts the December 2022 borders, this is not a guarantee that the Russian Federation will not move deeper, Rand analysts say.
Ending the war in the event that Ukraine gains full control over its entire internationally recognized territory remains, in their opinion, an extremely unlikely outcome. They note that the line of control as of December 2022 does not deprive Kyiv of economically important territories that would dramatically affect the viability of the country.
In terms of the duration of the conflict, Rand analysts note that a protracted war has advantages for the United States in the form of a military and economic weakening of Russia and a reduction in Europe's energy dependence on Russia. However, economic (the cost of supplied aid, refugees, global inflation and rising energy prices, etc.), as well as foreign policy risks (while the United States is occupied with Ukraine, China gains an advantage in competition with the United States) make a long conflict unprofitable for the United States, they believe.
In the last (and, in fact, the main) aspect - about the form of ending the war - it is said that there are options for complete victory of one of the parties, a truce or a political settlement.
In this case, the first option is considered impossible for both parties:
“For Russia, such a victory could be a fundamental change in the political system of Ukraine, for example, the overthrow of President Zelensky... For Ukraine, an absolute victory would be to deprive Russia of any opportunity to challenge the territorial control of Kyiv. Forcing the Russian army to return to the internationally recognized border will not lead to such an outcome.”
The truce option involves the creation of demilitarized zones and the payment of reparations - accordingly, Russia will not be satisfied. The most likely and beneficial option for the United States is a political settlement.
The study's authors identify four steps that the United States can take to begin a real negotiation process: clarifying plans for future support for Ukraine, making commitments to ensure Ukraine's security, providing guarantees of the country's neutrality, and establishing conditions for lifting sanctions against Russia.
“Territorial control, while extremely important for Ukraine, is not the most important dimension of the future of war for the United States. Given the possible escalation of war between Russia and NATO or Russian use of nuclear weapons, preventing a protracted war is a higher priority for the United States than promoting significantly greater territorial control of Ukraine,” the Rand think tank said in a report.
It is noteworthy that the document appeared after Russia carried out a partial mobilization of the army and military industry, stopped the counter-offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, launched local offensives and began preparing a larger one. Apparently, the United States is trying with all its might, including imitation negotiations, to slow down the Russian offensive until Ukrainian troops receive Western armored vehicles, and possibly combat aircraft and long-range missiles, and are ready to attack.
As PolitNavigator reported , former British Prime Minister Boris Johnson acknowledged the Minsk process as a "diplomatic sham."
American analysts are trying to persuade Moscow to end hostilities.