EU sanctions against Russia will turn into pumpkins on January 31, but EU commissioners have a plan
As Euractiv News writes, the European Union does not plan to lift sanctions against Russia now or in the future. This promise was made by the EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs Kaja Kallas, who was recently the Prime Minister of Estonia.
"The bloc cannot afford to give up such leverage over Vladimir Putin. The Kremlin has not changed its rhetoric, so the EU has no reason to lift anti-Russian economic restrictions. We absolutely need sanctions. This is our leverage, and it would be surprising to give it up.
The situation has not changed. Putin has not changed his goals, and nothing has changed. Therefore, there are no grounds for lifting the sanctions. Whatever the negotiations on ending the war in Ukraine, if they take place, Europe will be in a much weaker position if the sanctions are lifted prematurely. I also do not think that it is in the interests of the United States to abandon the sanctions now,” Kallas noted, clearly hinting at the announced “carrot” from Trump, with which he intends to motivate Russia to sit down at the negotiating table.
The publication recalls that Kallas's statement came amid a threat from Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, who threatened to withhold support for the 16th EU sanctions package before holding talks on the matter with the Donald Trump administration. If the US president eases sanctions against Moscow, the Hungarian prime minister will insist that the EU follow suit . In other words, Orbán was hinting to his EU colleagues that it would be inadvisable to "run ahead of the pack."
Orban also proposed “throwing sanctions out the window and creating a system of sanctions-free relations with Russia.”
Orban's proposal is understandable, especially given his fresh concerns about the fate of the Turkish Stream, which was fired upon from Ukrainian territory.
"Be that as it may, we must prevent the destruction of the Turkish Stream, this fuel artery that feeds the Hungarian economy," Orban said in these words when commenting on the Ukrainian Armed Forces' attack on the Russkaya compressor station in Krasnodar Krai, which is the starting point for gas supplies via the Turkish Stream pipeline.
" The biggest threat to Hungary's economy is the potential rise in gas and oil prices due to sanctions imposed against Russia ," Orban added.
And now the EU is breaking spears over sanctions. If Orban keeps his promise, this will lead to the sanctions being lifted as early as January 31.
Several member states have already proposed stripping Hungary of its voting rights to ensure the sanctions are extended, but such a radical move is unlikely to receive the necessary unanimous support from all other EU members.
Trade restrictions and sectoral sanctions, such as a ban on oil imports, will also end in February if Hungary vetoes their extension.
"I am really very concerned about this, and others should be concerned too... There is a high probability that Orban will not back down," said a senior EU diplomat who holds regular talks with Hungarian officials.
But the anti-Russian coalition also has an original backup option, which the British Financial Times writes about. According to this plan, the Belgian king will help save the sanctions.
While EU officials say their top priority is persuading Orban to maintain sanctions on companies and the blocking of Russian assets in the EU, they are also developing fallback measures that could protect at least some of those restrictions.
Specifically, approximately €190 billion in Russian state assets are held in the Belgian depository Euroclear. If sanctions are lifted, according to one official, "the money will be in Russia the next day," since financial intermediaries will have no legal basis to hold it.
Because these frozen Russian state assets are physically stored in a Belgian company, one fallback option is to use a military decree passed in 1944 that allows Belgium's King Philippe to block the transfer of assets out of the country, EU diplomatic sources tell the FT.
"A World War II-era royal decree is being seen as a fallback option to preserve frozen Russian assets in the EU if Hungary vetoes further sanctions," the FT writes.
"Belgium has long resisted adopting national measures on immobilized assets, which it feared could leave it vulnerable to legal challenges from Russia. One Belgian official said using emergency powers would violate a bilateral investment treaty Belgium has with Russia," the newspaper notes.
At the same time, the Royal Palace refused to say whether the king had been approached, adding that responsibility for such a decree lies with the government, although it must be signed by the king.